Heya - SHIII fan here.
Any of you guys running the Comodo firewall by chance?
Defense+ keeps silent Hunter 3 from running
Here is a thread about using older Nvidia drivers & AA issues & the SH3 black screen.
AA causeing SH3 to load only a black screen... - SUBSIM Radio Room Forums
You could also try what I did for SHIII under 7 x64; Installed it to c:\games\ubisoft\... GWX over that which moves a version of jsgme as well. If you use SH3 Commander don't forget the extra config files. Then try going into a carrer or Academy and check your screen. One word of caution with SH3-Commander is you start-make a new carrer with it and go to start the game, make sure the carrer is selected or the game will crapp itself.
Using k-lite codec's?
2) All Programs
3) K-Lite Codec Pack
5) Codec Tweak Tool
6) Disable the ffdshow filter