|22 Jun 2011||#1|
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The Singularity: 5 Technologies That Will Change the World
The Singularity: Five Technologies That Will Change the World (and One That Won't)
A few years ago, my buddy, Robert Sawyer postulated that because we now use computers as a critical tool for research, Moore’s Law applies to scientific accomplishment as well.
He started with a simple postulate—assume that in the first decade of the 21st century we have already accomplished as much scientific advancement as we accomplished in the entire 20th century—amazing discoveries in astronomy, paleontology, materials, medicine, robotics, etc.
Now, let’s try a thought experiment. If we apply Moore’s law and assume that the rate of scientific advancement doubles at the same rate as the computer power that we apply to research, then we can project that we will likely accomplish a whole 20th century’s worth of scientific advancement in 5 years—by 2015. As the rate continues to double, we’ll accomplish a century’s work in 2.5 years, then 1.25 years, 7.5 months, 3 months and 3 weeks, then a smidge less than two months, one month, two weeks, one week, then 3.5 days, 1.75 days, and if you ignore Zeno’s paradox, by the end of 2020 we will be accomplishing a century’s worth of research every day, and two weeks later, every second. And after that…?
Will that be when The Singularity occurs?..............
Maximum PC | The Singularity: Five Technologies That Will Change the World (and One That Won't)
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|22 Jun 2011||#4|
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and then......the BSOD
seriously though - it won't stop mankind's stupid ways, so yeah - hyper-computing for the fun of it in the future.
For our technology to advance at a rate more than exponentially, we will need to find new or apply neglected renewable options to sustain growth. With finite resources already facing limits with our insatiable need for new technology the populace may face stagnation (still seeing some form of growth but not at the rate predicted) more than likely science, military, and medicine will get first dibs.
It would be nice if this rate of information and discovery would be used for exceptional benevolence (ie: cheaper medicine, advanced materials for building rather than weaponry, space exploration, and environmental conservation)
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