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Any Horse Racing LAYING (odds to LOSE) followers
Hi all
I seem to have after a LOT of experimentation found a DECENT strategy of LAYING horses via the betting exchanges (Betfair.com and others).
When you LAY a horse to lose you put down say 2 GBP that the horse will lose.
If the horse DOES lose then you win 2 GBP -- but if it WINS then you have to pay out the SP odds * 2 GBP say 14 X 2 GBP which is 28 GBP - so whilst you can win - losing costs a lot.
However I've run statistics for the last YEAR (2009) of EVERY race in the UK and Rep of Ireland and this strategy seems to deliver around 80 winning bets per 1 loser per month-- making your profit around say 250 - 250 GBP a month on 3 GBP Lays (80 GBP) . - I'M NOT selling anything here just explaining the strategy to see if anybody else is interested in this stuff.
It#'s a relatively small amount of money but its constant tax free profit every month
Strategy is as follows
1) Chose races of length > 7 Furlongs (Horse race distances are in Furlongs -- 8 Furlongs = 1 Mile. Don't care whether FLAT or Jumps.
2) Do not bet on any race with MAIDENS
3) Only bet on races where the FAVORITE is EVENS or lower (on betting exchanges the Decimal prices is 2.0 or less)
4) only Lay horses where the SP is between 11-1 and 19-1. If you chose say up to 30 to 1 and the horse wins your winnings will be wiped out BIG time.
5) note you can lay MULTIPLE horses within the same race if they fall within the criteria.
How to create your Historical ACCESS DB so you can back check this stuff and "fine tune it".
1) Get the RAW results of a months racing results into an access DB -- Pic ONE. You can get data from Horse racing archives into a CSV file which you can then load into EXCEL. Remove extraneous columns and save as a RAW table into an ACCESS DB (in ACCESS DB open EXTERNAL DATA and choose EXCEL).
2) Create a TABLE QUERY reducing the data - races where favourite is "Decimal" 2.0 or less (in bookmakers this would be evens) and the race distance > 7 furlongs and NO MAIDENS.
(MAIDENS are new horses with absolutely no experience and so are entirely unpredictable - that's why its better to exclude these from the DB). Pic 2
3) Now create your BETTING query using table created in 2 joined to raw table in one on fields Date, Meeting, Time (pic 3)
The result of query 3 shows the possible LAYS -- you only LOSE if the result is 1 which rarely occurs.
For example data for JULY 2009 using the strategy outlined above shows 85 possible bets (nr of recs in the final query -- pic 3) = 85 *3 = 255 GB profit for ZERO losses -- no horse in the list came nr 1.
(If you use a higher amount to lay such as 4 or 5 GBP then the rewards will be bigger -- but remember also any losses will also be bigger so you need to optimize this -- I'm currently looking at around 5 GBP per lay.
Anybody else got any likely winning strategies -- I've done this for every month over 2009 and the WORST was 2 losses and that only happened in ONE month.
(I'm NOT promoting any "get rich scam" here -- I've simply explained MY strategy and if anyone has any better ideas etc it would be great to get some feedback on them -- after all what's wrong with "beating the bookies").
Cheers
jimbo
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