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Windows 7: So you want your next piece of kit FOR FREE

20 Apr 2010   #1

Linux CENTOS 7 / various Windows OS'es and servers
So you want your next piece of kit FOR FREE

Hi all
I've been stuck at home for nearly a week waiting for non existent planes to fly back to work -- but I haven't been wasting my time. In fact the idea is SO SIMPLE that I can't believe it's not more well known -- even when I explain the system in the pub people look with astonishment and with a couple of mouse clicks I win my free beer.

In any market you can trade that an event DOES happen or an event DOES NOT happen.

"Day traders" do this sort of stuff all the time - they trade for example that during a particular interval known as "When the market is active or IN-PLAY" they trade that say the DOW will reach 5800 or that it WON'T reach 5800. Trading that an event WILL occur is known as Backing, and trading that an event will NOT happen is known as Laying.

Now in any market at any one time the odds are higher on Backing than Laying - so at say 10:00 you might be able to tade that the DOW will reach 5800 at 8.8 while trading that it will NOT reach 5800 the odds will be say 9.2

If you trade say 10 EUR that the event WILL happen you make 88 EUR.
If you trade that the event WON'T happen you will make 10 EUR if the event DOESN'T happen but you stand to lose 92 EUR if the event DOES happen.

A LAYER has to pay the "Book" if the event happens but just wins the initial trade if the event does NOT happen.

So on the face of it - a mugs game you can't possibly win in the long term - unless you rely on LUCK -- now note we are TRADING NOT GAMBLING so we want to make a profit. Gamblers use luck, TRADERS on the other hand use Mathematics .

Now by a simple process you can lock in a profit REGARDLESS of whether say the DOW reaches 5800 or not.

Intuitively you have to say that this is a mugs game and you will always lose in the long run.

But be patient -- you have to understand how markets work. Markets are live events and while the market is active the trading odds change drmatically.

If say in our example that the market is nearing closing time and our event looks more likely to happen then the odds on it will say decrease to 2.0 with the similar odds for the event NOT happening reduced to say 2.6

It's possible that something can occur at the last minute so that your "almost certantity" won't now happen -- Bankers get caught in NY so DOW falls, Horse in front falls at last hurdle, plane you were going to take doesn't fly due to more volcano ash etc -- so you want to ensure you STILL make money even if your event DOESN'T happen (or win).

Now by simply trade an amount at 2.6 on the event NOT happenning (LAYING) we will GUARANTEE a profit whatever the market does -- 100% pure profit for a mouse click.

So in our exampe we initially traded 10 EUR at 8.8 -- Potential profit 88 EUR
potential loss 10 EUR

Now apply this simple formula -- will ALWAYS work so long as the LAY odds are smaller than your initial BACK odds

Amount to trade = Potential winnings / Lay odds

In the above example the amount we need to trade to GURANTEE a profit therefore is 88 / 2.6 = 33.8 EUR.

So look what happens

If the event HAPPENS then we win 88 - 33.8 EUR = 44.2 EUR

If the event DOESN'T happen we win 33.8 - 10 = 23.8 EUR

So for 43.8 EUR we've trousered a nice minimum profit of 23.8 EUR -- you won't get that rate of return in the bank.

If you just want to trade without using any money (Free Trading) then just choose the amount and odds that you ensure the outcome will either give you a profit if the event happens or leave a balance of ZERO if the event does NOT happen -- this will yield bigger wins but won't win nearly as often and it's not a decent long term stategy.

Anyway if you stick to the principles outlined above you can pay for your next computer ENTIRELY FREE.

My System SpecsSystem Spec

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