Fixed the problem.
Turns out the latest nVidia drivers
have updated the vsync functionality to integrate not only in OpenGL but also in D3D. Also they updated vsync to work that if your computer can't hold 60 FPS steady, it will drop to a 30 cap vsync. My skyrim was always in between 55 so it kept switching between those two.
As for oblivion, i believe that uhh i have no idea. Its fixed, so i dont even care!
Maybe because its old it doesnt support the new vsync very well? no clue.