What's the next generation install media?

I think the Future installation media is Flash Drives. But then again, People seem so persistent on keeping this Old Optical Disc Technology. (For the record, Yes, I hate Blu-Ray, Talk about a Old Tech trying to make it in a Download/Stream era)

Benjamin said:

I think the Future installation media is Flash Drives. But then again, People seem so persistent on keeping this Old Optical Disc Technology. (For the record, Yes, I hate Blu-Ray, Talk about a Old Tech trying to make it in a Download/Stream era)

In my opinion, blu-ray is only good for movies.

jw12345 said:

There's one upside to having crappy vision: save loads of money on all this fancy-schmancey high def business.

Haha, thats one way to look at it (no pun intended).

holo88, ROFLOL at the VHS install media. Nice!

antalgebra said:

Why do I have to build them myself, you ask? cuz. Im a lowly paid dev at microsoft that can't afford to by these 'regular' ones you speak of.

my next blu-ray player. thats right, I can't even afford that player that's retailed at $109 thats is no longer supported by LG. (why? becuase supporting it costs them BILLIONS of dollars in shipping, replacements, and lawsuits. good luck to anyone that doesent want to buy it new. How much new? that's right. 189.99 plus tax at fry's electronics. Why fry's? cuz I can return it if it doesent work. Your 89 dollar drive is really 300. becuase even if the drive does come (eventually) it wont work for very long, and your going to get sick of it not putting out to your 7.1 sound setup, and be thinking of what 'antalgebra' told you about what NOT to buy, and then going out and getting a new one for... $189.99?

Wow, is that ever skewed and completely off-base. Your prices are all wrong. OEM for just the player: $69.99 with free shipping from Newegg (Newegg.com - LITE-ON Black 4X BD-ROM 8X DVD-ROM 32X CD-ROM SATA Internal 4X Blu-ray Reader Model iHOS104-06 - Blu-Ray Drives). Retail with software: $79.99 with free shipping from Newegg (Newegg.com - LITE-ON Black 4X BD-ROM 12X DVD-ROM 32X CD-ROM SATA Internal 4X Blu-Ray DVD Drive Model DH-4O1S-58 - Blu-Ray Drives). And if you ever get a defective one (very, very rare), it's a whole $5-10 to ship it back before Newegg ships you another for free. I paid $89.99 because I got one that was also a DVD burner and was Retail, with software and all. Stop claiming silly prices of $189.99 to $300. If you shop wisely, your numbers are just wrong.

antalgebra said:

It required it's consumer to purchase a $1200 PC, (if it came with xp, then a $150 vista OS), a $300 monitor, a $60+ pair of speakers, and always be connected to $50/mo cable internet to get updates (or else!! ever try to install the SP0 out of box without updates? oh yeah, your in for a treat!) that's not even including the nicities, like Office, games, etc, whats a computer without programs? nothing (almost). and that's STARTUP costs. not including anything after the fact. Where am I going with this? everybody hated it. it sucked. nobody could afford the boxes it was designed to run on, and everyone was quite content with xp, not seeing a single need to move forward except as an excuse to buy another PC.

Again, your prices are wrong when we're talking entry level/affordable PCs. Here's a decent Dell on Newegg with an E8400 CPU, 2GB RAM, and Vista Business for $394.99: Newegg.com - DELL Vostro 220S (464-3147) Core 2 Duo E8400(3.00GHz) 2GB DDR2 80GB Intel GMA X4500HD Windows Vista Business / XP Professional downgrade - Desktop PCs. And that's not the cheapest one capable of running Vista/Windows 7. They can dip down to $350 for other brands. And a 19" monitor to that for $99 (Newegg.com - Acer X193Wb Black 19" 5ms Widescreen LCD Monitor 300 cd/m2 2000:1 ACM - LCD Monitors) and you have a system that runs Windows Vista/7 fairly smoothly for under $500. Heck, they come with Vista Home Premium or Vista Business, price included. And start-up costs? Are you serious? Open source software is the way to go for things like Open Office, GIMP, etc. I have an expensive gaming rig I built with around $2k in parts ($3k+ including monitors, etc.), and I still prefer to use Open Office.

And guess what? All of these similar value systems designed for Vista come with a DVD optical drive.

antalgebra said:

Cloud computing (a WHOLE nother thread, please dont reference this) is the next-next generation, because it's a little far out. especially for mainstream software download. why you ask? becuase of the "Last Mile".

You posted it here, so it gets replied if I like. But I agree, cloud computing will be a next-generation thing (and it will be free of optical drives, etc.). Names like g.ho.st are giving people a taste of it right now. But that doesn't have anything to do with Windows 7 or distribution of operating systems. That may eventually replace operating systems, but like you said, a whole other thread.

antalgebra said:

If a democrat is elected to office in 2012, we will have a federal funded wireless program that will end up costing taxpayers roughly 20 cents per person for 100% nationwide wireless coverage at a decent speed.

If a Republican get's elected we will see Comcast merge with T-Mobile to create a private wireless network available at $50/mo, and will provide a HUGE boost to the economies and markets that are associated with it.

Please, no politics here, along with guessing political trends.

antalgebra said:

Bluray burner = $199.99 to consumer; roughly $2,000,000 setup for MFG
DVD burner = $29.99; roughly $2,000 setup for MFG
CD burner = swap meet; roghly $2,000 setup for MFG (yup, near same)
USB reader = swap meet/trash can back of grannies puter; roughly $40 bucks for MFG.

As I referenced above, your numbers are wrong. As for "swap meet", you'll eventually be able to get Blu-ray drives in the distant future at garage sales, etc., so what's your point? Next-generation install media doesn't necessarily tie into "swap meet" for anything. As for set up costs for manufacturers, I'm not sure where you're pulling those numbers except out of you-know-where. I'll talk more about why that's wrong below...

antalgebra said:

Blu Ray media = $5 per disc for consumer; .65c to MFG
DVD Media = .50c per disc for consumer; .05c tp MFG
CD Media = .05c per disc for consumer; .05c to MFG
USB media = $1 per Gig.; .25c per Gig for MFG

Space isn't the prime issue, as we have an abundance of space for installation media. Price is the main focus. And even those they are not accurate numbers (they are symbolic), those prices will drop in the future and for the "next-generaiton" anyways, from Blu-ray discs to flash memory. And for the record, "USB Media" isn't a format, it's a means like a Blu-ray drive is to a Blu-ray disk. What you meant to say is soemthing like flash media, since we're talking flash memory here.

The medium will only change to Blu-ray when production costs of multiple DVDs grow greater than production costs of the same software on the number of Blu-Ray discs needs for the same software.

And there is no manufacturing costs involved in continuing with DVDs. Apparently you're lost on the concepts of mass-producing and distributing installation media. Most smaller companies will contract this through third-party media distribution companies who already have the manufacturing processes in place. Some larger companies might own their own media distribution plants/processes.

Point is: it will cost less to convert a DVD producing facility into a Blu-Ray producing facility because the physical properties of the medium are very similar. Moving over to flash memory means everything has to be redone, all assembly lines will drastically change, and the process itself is different.

From an article in April of 2009 (Panasonic Talks Blu-ray), about as recent as you can get for theses things:

Q: Do you believe that the Blu-ray will be the successor of the DVD in the PC segment? Are the flash memory solutions 'threatening' Blu-ray?
A: Both drive cost and media cost are important factors to succeed in the PC segment. It is obvious that Blu-ray would be the successor of DVD when the drive cost becomes affordable in the future. NAND flash memory has following features different from optical disc:
(1) reasonable cost,
(2) small dimension,
(3) vibration resistance,
(4) capacity.
This NAND flash memory has the different roll and application regarding the previously indicated features. From the aspect of high capacity, media distribution and archive use, optical media have the advantage.

Panasonic would disagree with you for "media distribution".

antalgebra said:

(I promise I wont post this long again, but sometimes it needs to be done; and is all well intended and good natured conversation)

LOL, "needs to be done" is an exaggeration. I have no problem with you compulsively needing to reply with long posts to anyone who disagrees with you. I enjoy doing that too. But let's separate "need" from "want" here. You "wanted" to do it, you didn't "need" to do it.

In the end, you made a CHOICE to buy a system without an optical drive. There's nothing evil about optical drives, and you can always get a cheap external one that connects via USB. And actually consumers are not the people driving the trends for media distribution channels. 'Business to business' and 'Business to organization' models affect this more than consumers do. Even when you get Windows pre-installed on a pre-built PC, that media distribution process was a 'Business to business' model because Microsoft was working directly with Dell, Acer, HP, etc., and that PC manufacturer is going to be using their own means of installing images, etc., that is going to vary from other manufacturer to another.

Just need to say this, this thread is fun to watch. :)

Is this an argument? there too much to read....


<-- easily distracted, looses place, gives up (in that order)

holo88 said:

Is this an argument? there too much to read....


<-- easily distracted, looses place, gives up (in that order)

Hehehe. Yup, no one is making you read the long posts. A lot of text in this topic.

antalgebra said:

...since most of us aren't comfortable purchasing over the internet, and would much rather have the ability to walk in and return if necessary.

Well then, you just added a conditional factor for the "me" argument, hehehe. Considering how many people buy computer hardware from Internet-based resellers, you're in the minority there.

antalgebra said:

second, I was quoting "When Vista came out" for machines it was DESIGNED for. not an e-machine.

I linked to a Dell, not an eMachine. And it only matters what things cost now and in the future, not what they cost 1-2 years ago. We're talking "next generation" not previous generations.

antalgebra said:

Im sitting here in a burn lab, watching DVD's get burned with media. I'm not sure how much more 'conceptual' I can get with mass producing DVD's.

And the thing about USB media? no burn lab needed. were all sitting on the equipment needed to write to them, nothing more. As for manufacturing, it's in place and will grow, and get cheaper with demand.

The bulk of media production/replication/distribution is done with stamped CDs. THEY ARE NOT BURNED. If you're in a "burn lab", then you're in a small production area or an amateur shop.

If you don't believe me, here's one reference out of thousands out there: How Would You Like Your Video CD Done? Burned or Stamped?

Fact: There are no mass production facilities in place to copy developers' software on flash memory that come anywhere near the volumes they do with optical discs. Flash memory manufacturers have their own prcoesses and production facilities set up for their own hardware, but there is currently no market for it, so it doesn't exist as a service for large software developers.

Opinion: And if you went the PC approach to have people do their own copies, it would take far too many man hours with a high rate of errors for it to be profitable. Therefore, I don't see this happening any time in the future. Chances are, some other media will replace optical discs before something like flash memory would even have a chance at entering the media distriubtion world.

antalgebra said:

So here's my question, if you use all open software, what backing do you have to predict how people that do purchase software lies?? You dont even do it yourself??

I have no idea what you mean by that. That made no sense. Where did "open software" come from? Or are you referring to "open-source software"?

antalgebra said:

At this point, your just trying to poke holes. Sorry to be mean, but I see no validity to any of the arguments above.

LOL. I'm pointing out facts along with some opinions too. Some of what you mention just goes against facts, and certainly a lot of it is different than my opinions too. I'm not trying to change your mind on anything, but I will point out facts where appropriate.