|23 Jul 2009||#1|
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Windows 7 Goes Gold (RTM): Can Apple or Google Tarnish
Windows 7 was released to manufacturing and faces an installed base of users who don't yet know what to think of this new OS. They are a little jaded by what happened with Vista. This provides an opportunity for competitive displacement, and both Apple and Google are going for this gold. With the Windows 7 RTM, we start to put the Vista name and product rapidly into the past, along with Windows ME, DOS 5.0, and other less than memorable Windows Platforms. With today's announcement that Windows 7 is released to manufacturing, and large numbers supposedly already sold to business, it is time to start looking at this now very real offering.
Windows 7 is what Windows Vista should have been but is it enough to hold off the erosion to Apple and the possible erosion to the Chrome OS. Let’s break out the crystal ball and look ahead to what Windows 7 faces.
I was chatting with one of the top technology reporters yesterday and he indicated that he and his wife are switching to the Mac platform. He has wanted to move for several years but his wife has been tied at the hip to Windows. Well, it seems that she got a virus last week and when she called McAfee, her AV vendor, to complain, they told her that to get rid of the virus she had, she needed to pay them more money. She saw this as extortion and, after her husband explained that Apple didn’t have a virus problem, she agreed to move to the Mac. I’ve been seeing this same story play out a lot this last year and Apple's numbers, reflecting a market share growth of between 7 percent and 9 percent over the last quarter, would seem to confirm that Apple is on a ramp.
Apple sells on the idea that its product is simple to use, boots very quickly, doesn’t require a lot of patching, is immune to viruses, and doesn’t require painful migrations to new operating systems or new hardware. Post Windows 7, Windows users will see faster boot times, less painful migrations (assuming they don’t miss an upgrade), and with the coming free virus program a better resilience to viruses. But Apple would still appear to have an advantage. To even close this gap, most Windows users have to get off of XP, which will be a relatively painful migration (compared to a Vista upgrade). Granted, to get this experience you have to pay a substantial premium for Apple hardware but an increasing number of people appear to be more than willing to do that to get a premium experience. Apple will likely never get more than 30 percent of the market, but the percentage it does get will likely be the most profitable in the segment.
For Google, things aren’t quite so rosy. Google Chrome won’t show up in time to benefit much from the Windows XP to Widows 7 upgrade pain and Google has about as much focus as a three-year-old that guzzled three Cokes and mainlined 20 Pixie Sticks (pure sugar). I got a call today asking me, and I kid you not, if I’d heard about the car Google was working on. Car?!? OMG.
In many ways, Google is turning out to be the polar opposite of Apple, and it is making me really appreciate Apple’s focus and willingness to market at the moment. The difficulty with the Chrome OS is that it is simply too different and it feels like Google missed the whole “embrace and extend” thing that Microsoft initially demonstrated and Apple is learning to copy with things like MobileMe. Even if you look at Android, the new HTC phones embrace Windows not through Google but by going around them and licensing directly from Microsoft. Apple licensed ActiveSync itself directly and didn’t need AT&T to do it. It is very much like Google has missed a meeting. It doesn’t market its offerings, its new OS is late (and it could have bought Hyperspace from Phoenix and arrived on time), and it is so different that it is unlikely to be embraced by buyers. And all of this is in turn probably because Google can’t focus to save its own life.
Wrapping Up: Apple Hit, Google Potential Miss
Windows 7 is a stunning product and I’ve been on it since January. With the enhancements, most should prefer it strongly to what has gone before. However, Apple will likely take share and further consolidate its position as the one Lexus vendor in a market made up of lots of Toyota vendors. Google’s attempt to rediscover the Yugo in a PC will probably fail and keep Microsoft from being squeezed between Google and Apple. In the end, Apple still likely needs to establish a lower-end product line (or license the MacOS) if it wants to dominate, and Microsoft has to embrace the more premium (less disruptive) experience users want if it intends to hold its dominant share. And, of course, Google needs to learn the word “focus.” In the end, this battle will likely be decided by the vendor that first learns how to address its competitor’s strengths effectively without falling over its own weaknesses.
|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#2|
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Please DO NOT post or distribute any Torrent or similar links to the RTM build anywhere in these Forums. They are NOT permitted and will be removed. Requests for the same are also NOT permitted. This also applies to PMs (private messages).
|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#5|
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|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#6|
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Actually I think Apple better start to pay attention...cause MS made an incredible OS here, as a matter of fact I wouldn't be surprised if Mac fans might start to make the switch to Windows 7 when it goes on sale Oct.22/09.
|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#7|
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In the end, Apple still likely needs to establish a lower-end product line (or license the MacOS) if it wants to dominate, and Microsoft has to embrace the more premium (less disruptive) experience users want if it intends to hold its dominant share. And, of course, Google needs to learn the word “focus.”
Apple (and I being a former Macaddict really do start needing to look at their market, who currently is made up of people willing to pay a premium for overpriced underspecced mac hardware.
Interesting that reporters always talk of MS's disruptive experience, but yet ironically it has been Microsoft's desire to be all things to all men that has spawned this. If MS had, as they have now done, just Home premium and pro with Vista there would have been considerably less confusion.
Also had MS forced signed drivers on lazy developers when it released the option back in XP 64's incept days then this too would have made transitions easier. Lets face it 16bit coding should have died a long time ago.
Mac's veneer of usability is built on the fact that I knew that the API was so tightly controlled that it would make it instantly familiar to me. However, I also knew that there was a world of professional apps that would never port to the mac platform. Autodesk have started, but I still don't see D'Assault Catia or Solidworks on the mac and I don't think I ever will do outside of a Parallels desktop or bootcamp environment.
If apple wan't to dominate , or if MS wants to dominate they need to look at what makes their rival what it is -
MS - Apple has strong almost draconic API's and develper guidelines, but this has added to the 'it just works' mantra. You're starting to inplement this with driver signing etc, and you will get there, but also you need to be alot stricter on GUI and the aesthetic side of things - like it or not, this is where apple win, Joe average doesn't want command line or bland, he want s eye candy and apple have a knack of wrapping the most complex of functions in elegant non threatening interfaces. It won't take a lot for MS to learn.
Apple - It Just works... well it doesn't really does it!
It just works because I pay over 2K for a MAC PRO, unfortunately it's a server class board so I need EEC ram which I pay through the nose for. Or I settle for a laptop board taped to a big monitor - er sorry Imac, or I go for a micro PC er sorry - mac mini. I know it can't do what I need graphically, and it's expansion is limited - and once I've bought that lovely 24" LED display and the sexy keyboard and mouse i've paid for an imac again!
Apple 'It just works' is when I go and buy a bag of bits at my computer store, throw it together and put the cd in and it installs. That just works. I know your products are beautifully made nad have a beautiful aesthetic, I used to evangelise and preach about them all the time. But I can build a mac pro and still have 1k left over out of components. I know it's not a part of the mac 'experience' but now i'm older and wiser, and don't have money to burn I'd like to choose who I buy my roll neck from, rather than living in a town with only one rollneck vendor.
If you really want market share, look at MS - release the software, allow it to install on my box of bits, only then will the developers follow, when all can see the benefits of the OS's useability and see it populating offices and factories only then will the likes of Dassault release it's engineering and design solutions onto it. Until then its great if all you do is work in media.
Ironically, we've gone full circle. Apple is locked as it was years ago in the belief that the media/publishing/music industry would be enough to support it and in turn blindly pay it's inflated hardware prices (I remember buying a Mac II fx for £2000 in 91, the mouse was another £45 as was the keyboard and the monitor was another £350 - an ibm or commodore PC running windows 3.1 cost £800 from the local computer store).
If apple wan't to cut it as a contender it needs to sell it's software as MS does, and Ok, then their kid comes home with a copy of the latest shootem up and tried to load it on his family mac pro - Oh, he can't.
9% market segment isn't enough for software house to bother about developing for. A seat of Solidworks costs 5K, a seat of CATIA up to 250K, the latter runs on Windows and UNIX, but they have already said that they won't recompile the binaries for Mac, it's too much effort for the return.
And that I suppose is why I left the mac platform, don't get me wrong I loved it and I love it still, but ultimately It was too much effort and cost for the return.
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|23 Jul 2009||#8|
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Don't get me wrong, I love Windows 7. I'm one of the people that looks forward to clean installing each new build. But I don't think that just because Windows 7 is good, you have the excuse to talk about Macs as though it is simply their image that sells them. If that were true, in your world a lot of people must be very materialistic. How sad.
Interesting about the Google stuff though, but in all honesty, unless something dramatic is done, it'll just be another Linux distro- albeit with Google's name and stamp of approval on it.
And @ GrimReaper, I have a Macbook Unibody as my primary desktop and laptop. I use it everyday, and it works very well for me. When Windows 7 ships, I plan on buying it, yes. But, it will certainly not replace OS X as my main operating system. It will maintain in the same status it has been for the past 4-5 months- a hobby os with which I play games and sometimes browse the web. As good as 7 is, I'm not going to sell my Macbook and buy an HP or Dell Laptop with only 7- that would be a step backward, :P.
Not flaming, just my opinion .
|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#9|
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funny that she used McAfee and holds that against MS. She should have a good AVP, like Kaspersky and it removes everything malicious.
And Apple doesn't have viruses? the only reason they have fewer viruses is because of their unimportance. It's like "my Chrysler is better protected against theft than a Honda because it is such a POS that no one would want it". And they do have viruses, but no AVP.. so they are completely vulnerable if attacked.
Apple just works. that is correct. However, it doesn't have any use for things that computers were originally intended for:
- no professional software beyond Adobe products (no CAD, no engineering software...)
- no games
- no compatible Office program (the first thing the people who hate MS do when they buy a Mac is installing MS Office:-)
- no choice of hardware
It's like building the perfect car that gets 100 mpg and cost $ 100,000... but you can't drive in rain or at night or in winter or when it is hot.
If MS would sell an OS only with it's own overpriced hardware and would only let users browse the internet and draw pictures I'm sure it would be very stable, fast and easy to use.
Well Windows 7 is very easy to use, stable and fast despite the ability to use productivity software. And so was XP.
|My System Specs|
|23 Jul 2009||#10|
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Personally, I do not care which OS or platform is better. That quality is a perception. I use what I use and I sell what I sell. My presence on this site is an effort to expand my understanding of the Windows 7 OS, coupled with a desire to share my general knowledge and experience. I cannot resist, nor will ever attempt to resist, smacking down a dumb*ss poser. I have graded the article using standards applicable in a secondary school environment. The result is a deduction of 110 points on a 100 point scale. Granted, I am a harsh taskmaster. I did this while eating dinner and I have not applied my usual degree of attention to detail.
...along with Windows ME, DOS 5.0, and other less than memorable Windows Platforms...
-5 Parallelism. DOS is not Windows, ME was not targeted at businesses.
...is it enough to hold off the erosion to Apple...
-5 No reference cited. Assumes facts not in evidence. The citation later in the article (Apples numbers) does not compare Apple to MS figures, only Apple and MS figures relative to themselves.
...and the possible erosion to the Chrome OS...
-10 Chrome OS is not intended for the enterprise
one of the top technology reporters... to get rid of the virus she had, she needed to pay them more money
-15 Just plain BS. A top reporter would know that the subscription had an expiration date and that the app is sub-standard. Either a lie or the veracious statement of an idiot.
...Apples numbers, reflecting a market share growth of between 7 percent and 9 percent over the last quarter
-10 A failing grade in math. Period. Draws conclusions regarding market share from data regarding Apple revenues and share prices. Idiotic.
...immune to viruses.
-5 Need I say more? Ok, less frequently attacked would have been a better phrase. The writer simply does not know his subject.
...Google...is making me really appreciate Apple’s focus and willingness to market
-10 Poorly disguised bias. This is not an essay.
...The difficulty with the Chrome OS is that it is simply too different
-5 Duh. Let's move the app and data set to the net and not be different? Again, the writer does not understand the subject.
...Chrome Crap...because Google can’t focus to save its own life.
-10 I had to re-read this section several times. It was a struggle to interpret the writer's failed attempt to employ the English languauge in written form. In the end, the writer seems to predict the failure of Google as an enterprise. Yes, dump your Google stock.
...Google’s attempt to rediscover the Yugo in a PC will probably fail and keep Microsoft from being squeezed between Google and Apple
-10 Right. Google Chrome's writer-predicted failure is the reason that MS dominates Apple in distribution ?!? Also, the Yugo's failure in Western markets did not diminish, in any way, the true value of the Yugo in regard to infrastructure development in Eastern Europe. A poor metaphor at best, ignorance at worst.
... In the end, this battle will likely be decided by the vendor that first learns how to address its competitor’s strengths effectively without falling over its own weaknesses.
-25 Quoting any generic high school economics text book and attempting to pass it off as an astute conclusion from learned reasoning.
This article is little more than an Apple devotee asking for a price break. It is certainly not journalism.
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