A look ahead: 2012 is Microsoft's turning point

From my perspective (and I suspect some other people's) they are wasting time (and presumably money) on this Metro UI.

They could be using that time (and money) fixing up various glitches, performance lags and security vulnerabilities that exist in Windows 7 (i.e. so they don't exist in Windows 8).

From the MS perspective that is not so. The mobile market is a huge business opportunity that grows 10 times faster than the PC market. And up to now, MS is not really present in this market because they lack ARM support that 99% of the mobile devices require.

With Windows8, they will change the whole landscape. Apart from new users, they will chew a big portion of today's Android and Apple market. Plus, the ARM processors will migrate into the Netbook and laptop market which again is an excellent opportunity.

Qualcom alone makes 1 million ARM chips every day - and that is not counting Nvidea and the other manufacturers. Why would MS stand on the side and let the others take that share.

This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.

I don't like the cloud and I don't like Windows 8. That's just it for me, good old Windows 7 and good reliable hard drives.

jloc said:

I don't like the cloud and I don't like Windows 8. That's just it for me, good old Windows 7 and good reliable hard drives.

your forced to be on the cloud on windows 8? Never used win 8, this is why i ask. If you have to use the cloud then that just sucks.

whs said:

This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.

So they are willing to risk alienating 1 billion existing users for 140 million new ones?
P*** off enough of your user base and they might just switch to Mac or (more likely) Linux.

That's not to say that MS shouldn't try to suck money out of the "fashionistas" (they obviously have "plenty to burn").

I'm not going to type Word docs, or create Excel spreadsheets, on a mobile phone.
Business productivity will drop to basically zero, when they replace desktops with mobile phones.

M1GU31 said:

your forced to be on the cloud on windows 8? Never used win 8, this is why i ask. If you have to use the cloud then that just sucks.

No.
Windows 8 still installs locally.

However it will probably only be a matter of time, before they try to release a "Cloud" only OS.
Hopefully the SOPA debacle will put a stop to it.

lehnerus2000 said:

whs said:

This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.

So they are willing to risk alienating 1 billion existing users for 140 million new ones?

P*** off enough of your user base and they might just switch to Mac or (more likely) Linux.

I'm not going to type Word docs, or create Excel spreadsheets, on a mobile phone.

Business productivity will drop to basically zero, when they replace desktops with mobile phones.

That will be a 140 million new ones (or more) each year. And there is absolutely no reason that one cannot use Win8 on PCs. Yes it is a bit different, but that is the exciting part.

And as far as Mac is concerned, that will be only for the rich people and Linux for the extra smart. And there are not too many around of either category.

whs said:

That will be a 140 million new ones (or more) each year.

That chart was labelled cumulative.
It also chooses a time span which suits the argument that mobile devices are the "bee's knees".
What would it look like if the time scale was 30 years?

How long before the market is saturated (just like mobile phones)?

Not everyone can afford to "waste" $500 on a glorified e-book reader.
If I (personally) had $500 lying around, I'd use it to improve my PC (graphics card and RAM) and external backup storage.

whs said:

And there is absolutely no reason that one cannot use Win8 on PCs. Yes it is a bit different, but that is the exciting part.

True, but it is awful (if you don't use the Registry hack).
I constantly had to switch to the Metro screen (or choose to populate my desktop with icons) to get anything done.

Thus I've used the Registry hack.
As a result, I have the productive "Dinosaur" Windows Desktop and "Start Menu" back.

whs said:

And as far as Mac is concerned, that will be only for the rich people and Linux for the extra smart. And there are not too many around of either category.

Apple might seize the opportunity to gain market share by lowering its prices (i.e. subsidizing part of the cost, by using some of the massive iDevice profits).

Despite its problems, Linux is getting easier to use.
If you only do simple things (e.g. start Firefox, send email or create simple docs) it is already adequate (i.e. you don't need to know any Terminal commands).

If Red Hat (for example) sensed an opportunity to expand, they might actually hire some more people to work on their GUIs.

It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK (but not with that extra slow FF - use Chromium). I happen to like the Terminal commands. But I have been a professional programmer all my working life.

whs said:

It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK (but not with that extra slow FF - use Chromium). I happen to like the Terminal commands. But I have been a professional programmer all my working life.

I have no speed problems with FF9 in Ubuntu 10.04 (of course I had to install it the hard way).

As you can probably guess, I hate having to constantly swap workspace/environments:

• GUI to Terminal and back.
• Metro to Desktop and back.

If I wanted to use the CLI constantly, I would never have left DOS.

whs said:

It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK ...

There have been rumors that OSX and IOS will most likely merge, but it doesnt stop there ! There have also been rumors that Imacs will get capacitive touch!
Then again these are just rumors.
As for linux I use it every once in a while for compiling, scripting, and general server use. My preferred Distros have always been Ubuntu and CentOS. I can say that being a Linux "Power User" has a steep learning curve, due to the fact that the terminal takes alot to master, This in itself will prevent many users from switching to linux in the first place, also linux has very little standards set in place, just look at all the different distributions.

As for Windows 8, I see potential, its just how MS decides to apply all of that potential that matters!