Windows 7 Forums
Welcome to Windows 7 Forums. Our forum is dedicated to helping you find support and solutions for any problems regarding your Windows 7 PC be it Dell, HP, Acer, Asus or a custom build. We also provide an extensive Windows 7 tutorial section that covers a wide range of tips and tricks.


Windows 7: Seagate CEO Explains Why Flash Won’t Replace Magnetic HDDs Soon


15 Apr 2012   #1
Microsoft MVP

64-bit Windows 8.1 Enterprise
 
 
Seagate CEO Explains Why Flash Won’t Replace Magnetic HDDs Soon

Quote:
Solid state drives don’t just “sort of” speed up your boot drive, the difference is literally night and day. Anyone who has spent any amount of time with a machine equipped with one will tell you it’s hard to go back to using a mechanical drive, but that doesn’t have Seagate worried. Forbes had an opportunity to sit down with CEO Steve Luczo this week, and he makes a pretty compelling argument as to why the mechanical hard drive industry has nothing to fear from SSD to makers, at least for now.
Read more at:
Maximum PC | Seagate CEO Explains Why Flash Won


My System SpecsSystem Spec
.

15 Apr 2012   #2
mjf

Windows 7x64 Home Premium SP1
 
 

I bet Kodak had a similar point of view regarding film. They are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy I believe.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
15 Apr 2012   #3

Black Label 7 x64
 
 

Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by mjf View Post
I bet Kodak had a similar point of view regarding film. They are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy I believe.
I thought that, too, at first. But if you read the interview it's interesting because apparently there is no way to produce enough flash drives to store all the information available on earth:

Quote:
Q: Sitting someplace on a drive. So, demand for drive capacity will continue to grow.

A: Our industry shipped 100 exabytes of data five years ago, 400 exabytes in 2011, and we’ll probably ship a zettabyte sometime between 2015 and 2016. A zettabyte is equal to all the data that’s been digitized from 1957 through 2010. Everything, however you want to think of it, cards, tapes, PCs, mainframes, client/server, minicomputers – one zettabyte. And we’re going to ship that in one year. So whatever the architecture is, pads, phones, notebooks, ultrabooks, real notebooks, PCs, servers, clouds, one year, a zettabyte – that’s all going to be on rotating mass storage.

Q: And demand will keep ratcheting up from there.

A: By 2020, that number is somewhere between 7 and 35 zettabytes, depending on who you’re talking to – Seagate, which says 7, or EMC, which says 35. There is no amount of flash that can even address one tenth of one percent of that. People get locked in to this view at a device level. Yes, you could have some number of units that are serviced by flash. Let’s hope so. In fact, my bigger concern is that the flash guys can’t figure out how to keep delivering the performance and costs that they’ve been able to as they get to sub-21 nanometers, than it is that somehow they’re going to replace HDDs. Not without literally $500 billion of investment in fabs they’re not. And even then they’d only be scraping the surface.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
.


15 Apr 2012   #4
mjf

Windows 7x64 Home Premium SP1
 
 

Maybe I think of SSDs more generally as non spinning storage devices. I remember the days of 20MB HDDs. The idea of a 3 TB domestically available HDD was considered beyond the physics of magnetic storage. Ok rotating storage has a future for mass storage for quite a while. But I think we are talking very large database storage.

I'd like to consider SSD in future as standing for fast Static Storage Device be it NAND gate type technology or optical. I can't see the market for this disappearing.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #5

W7 X-64 W8.1 X-64 Opensuse 13.1 W2003 Server
 
 

Hi there
at least it wasn't a "Gartner's" prediction.

If Gartner said the same thing I'd sell ANY stock I had in Seagate etc etc. Those people are HOPELESS in prediction -- about 50% correct -- same as you'd get with a random guess. !!!

Of course what else do you expext SEAGATE to say--"We are in a dying Industry People -- Please do not invest any more money" --Of course not.

As more and more people try SSD's and like them demand will grow and the technology will develop (even Seagate will join the party at some time) to make them large capacity and affordable. It might take a while but IT WILL COME un some form or other.

Incidentally there are also ENVIROMENTAL reasons for using SSD's too -- less power requirements, less "Rare Earth" and toxic Heavy metal requirements so a cleaner manufacturing process etc.

(Look at Kodak failing to spot the digital photography trend, and probably SONY isn't too long left for this world either --at least in its present form).

Predicting Future technology or even the use of it is always a dangerous game -- remember once Texting was only provided since the Mobile operators had spare capacity and didn't know what to do with it -- nobody even dreamed of the amount of use it would get.

Music studios restricting output to CD thought they had the Music Industry in their hands for ever in spite of an onslaught by MD's (Minidiscs) to make music more portable.

Then as we all know the Ipod appeared and changed the whole nature of how people listen, buy and store music (and probably make it too).

Same with Movies -- Better Bandwidth, more people with large LCD screens -- so people want this at HOME rather than expensive trips to a movie theater where you don't have any control of how you play / watch the movie. People like Netflix etc have got this more or less correct assuming the Babdwidth can sustain it.

Satellite TV and "On Demand" TV has shaken the standard providers to the core -- who cares if channel X and channel Y are showing things yoy want to watch at the same time -- just RECORD both and watch them at your leisure (and fast forward the commercials too).

Cheers
jimbo
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #6

Windows 7 Home premium 64bit SP1
 
 

i'm still waiting for ssd prices to go down so i can use it as a boot drive and install a couple programs on it and install my games on my current hdd. Hopefully in the future they are a lot cheaper and then there wont be a need for hdd and i can install all my stuff on a big enough ssd.Anyways as for now i'm playing the sit and watch the prices and wait game.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #7

Black Label 7 x64
 
 

Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by jimbo45 View Post
Of course what else do you expext SEAGATE to say--"We are in a dying Industry People -- Please do not invest any more money" --Of course not.

As more and more people try SSD's and like them demand will grow and the technology will develop (even Seagate will join the party at some time) to make them large capacity and affordable. It might take a while but IT WILL COME un some form or other.
Agree, but the key phrase is "take a while." There's simply no way flash drives will come close to matching the capacity of mechanical drives for decades - it's the same brick wall Moore's Law is running into. Beyond a certain point, we just don't how to shrink and cram more stuff in tighter spaces. I'm sure the marketplace will figure this out, or come up with a totally new technology, but right now that is really far off.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #8

W7 X-64 W8.1 X-64 Opensuse 13.1 W2003 Server
 
 

Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by Colonel Travis View Post
Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by jimbo45 View Post
Of course what else do you expext SEAGATE to say--"We are in a dying Industry People -- Please do not invest any more money" --Of course not.

As more and more people try SSD's and like them demand will grow and the technology will develop (even Seagate will join the party at some time) to make them large capacity and affordable. It might take a while but IT WILL COME un some form or other.
Agree, but the key phrase is "take a while." There's simply no way flash drives will come close to matching the capacity of mechanical drives for decades - it's the same brick wall Moore's Law is running into. Beyond a certain point, we just don't how to shrink and cram more stuff in tighter spaces. I'm sure the marketplace will figure this out, or come up with a totally new technology, but right now that is really far off.
Hi there

even today we *Could* triple the capacity of all drives be they SSD's or spinners without a single change of technology -- with fast hardware why not build compression (lossless) into the storage -- the user will just see the data in "plain text" while the hardware will compress / decompress the data.

The compression mechanism can be built into the firmware.
Things like WORD / EXCEL etc will compress up to 90% and most music / multimedia can be LOSSLESSLY compressed decently too.

We need faster hardware for this to work but the firmware of the spinners / SSD's could have fast RAM speed type caches for doing the compression / decompression.

Mechanisms and systems in the future will certainly appear (and I don't believe it will be too long).

SSD's in their present form might take a geological age (if ever) to catch up capacity wise with spinners -- but there is a lot of newer technology out there in Labs just awaiting the need to move it beyond Research stage into real development.

Mabe bubble storage with new technology might come back into consideration - certinly there's a lot of development going on into the next generation of Mass storage.

Cheers
jimbo
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #9

 
 

There's plenty of time before Mechanical drive makers have to hit the panic button.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
16 Apr 2012   #10

W7 X-64 W8.1 X-64 Opensuse 13.1 W2003 Server
 
 

Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by smarteyeball View Post
There's plenty of time before Mechanical drive makers have to hit the panic button.
Hi there
you can still buy FLOPPY Discs and a USB floppy disk adapter if you want .

Cheers
jimbo
My System SpecsSystem Spec
Reply

 Seagate CEO Explains Why Flash Won’t Replace Magnetic HDDs Soon




Thread Tools



Similar help and support threads for2: Seagate CEO Explains Why Flash Won’t Replace Magnetic HDDs Soon
Thread Forum
What components make enterprise HDDs more reliable than consumer HDDs? Hardware & Devices
How to replace Toshiba flash cards Customization
Tale of the magnetic tape: 60 years at IBM Chillout Room
Your future hard drive might be grown with magnetic bacteria Chillout Room
Magnetic Plastic RAM Chillout Room
how do magnetic fields affect Computers? Hardware & Devices
Magnetic Window Edge General Discussion

Our Sites

Site Links

About Us

Find Us

Windows 7 Forums is an independent web site and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Microsoft Corporation. "Windows 7" and related materials are trademarks of Microsoft Corp.

© Designer Media Ltd

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:46 AM.
Twitter Facebook Google+



Windows 7 Forums

Seven Forums Android App Seven Forums IOS App
  

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33