| Windows 7: Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC |
06 Mar 2013
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#1 | | Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8 RP VM, Linux Mint Debian 2nd OS HD- 7 Pro x64 second case New England |
Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC Quote: Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC Brad Chacos @BradChacos
Mar 5, 2013 3:00 AM
While rumors of the PC's demise are greatly exaggerated—an industry that moved more than 350 million units in 2012 is not "dead"—computers undoubtedly aren't selling as quickly as they once did. Analysts forecast PC sales to far exceed tablet sales for the foreseeable future, but the growth rate for PC sales has utterly and completely flatlined.
The big question, of course, is why?
A couple of theories inform conventional wisdom. Most pundits blame stagnant PC sales on the likewise stagnant economy, or point toward the ascension of smartphones and tablets. Others argue (fairly persuasively) that the flattening of growth is attributable to the idiosyncrasies of PC sales in developing countries, where computers are a rarely replaced luxury item. A second wave, analysts say, has yet to come after an initial surge in sales in those nations.
Like most economic sectors, the PC market is influenced by myriad factors, and some truth lies in all three of those explanations. After watching my mother-in-law happily troll Facebook and sling emails on her nearly ten-year-old Pentium 4 computer, however, an even more insidious possibility slipped into my head.
Did CPU performance reach a "good enough" level for mainstream users some years back? Are older computers still potent enough to complete an average Joe's everyday tasks, reducing the incentive to upgrade?
"It used to be you had to replace your PC every few years or you were way behind. If you didn't, you couldn't even run the latest software," says Linley Gwennap, the principal analyst at the Linley Group, a research firm that focuses on semiconductors and processors. "Now you can hold onto your PC five, six, seven years with no problem. Yeah, it might be a little slow, but not enough to really show up [in everyday use]."
Old processors are still OK for everyday use
This may come as a shock to performance-pushing PC enthusiasts but the average Joe almost never encodes videos, nor will you catch him fragging fools in Crysis 3. Instead, Average Joe spends most of his time on mundane, often Web-centric tasks: Buying stuff online, sending emails, engaging friends and family on social media, maybe watching the occasional YouTube video—on default resolutions, natch, not high-definition—or playing a few hands of Solitaire.
In other words, hardly the kind of activity that begs for an overclocked, water-cooled, hyper-threaded Core i7 processor. Or even a modern-day Ivy Bridge Core i3 processor, if we're being honest. see full report | My System Specs |
| OS Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8 RP VM, Linux Mint Debian 2nd OS HD- 7 Pro x64 second case CPU AMD Phenom II X4 975 Deneb 3.6ghz - 965 on new mini tower Motherboard Gigabyte GA-790XTA-UD4 Memory Kingston Hyper X DDR3 1600 1.5v 16gb - Mushkin on 2nd build Graphics Card MSI HD Radeon 5750 1gb - MSI HD Radeon 6450 on mini tower Sound Card Creative Labs X-Fi XtremeGamer - Realtek onooard 2nd case Monitor(s) Displays 2 x Acer P191W 19" widesscreen - HP 20" widescreen mini towe Screen Resolution 1440x900 native - 1600x1024 on 7 Pro x64 build Keyboard Microsoft Recusa Razor - MS Comfort 3000 on second build Mouse MS Trackball Explorer - A4TECH dual scroll wheel trackball PSU Corsair 750TX - primary / Corsair CX600 - second Case Antec 900-2 - SSD compatible / NZXT Vulcan mini tower Cooling Zalman CNPS9900A Hard Drives Primary Ultimate x64 build-
WD Black Edition 1tb Sata 6.0 = 2
WD Black Edition 1tb Sata 3.0 = 2 (OS drives)
WD 1tb Green Power sata = 2 1 external
usb flash drives = 18
Second 7 Pro x64 mini tower-
WD Caviar SE 500gb sata II single drive presen Internet Speed 30mbps upgrade - primary hard wired - mini tower usb WiFi |
06 Mar 2013
|
#2 | | Microsoft Windows 7 Home Premium 32-bit 7601 Multiprocessor Free Service Pack 1 Cybertron |
That was a very good article. I'm currently using an 06-07 dell lattidue with Genuine Intel(R) CPU T2400 @ 1.83GHz, 1 GB Ram and 55GB Hard Drive. I limit the amount of programs installed and keep it pretty clutter free with externals, but the article holds true. I've never had any real problems with it, maybe a lag or two perhaps the drivers need an update, but I use it every day (not a gamer or audio/video editor) but she runs pretty smoothly and accomplishes my tasks. That being said I am going to be building a custom PC near the end of the year, but I'll hold on to this girl as my travel computer for sure. | My System Specs | | OS Microsoft Windows 7 Home Premium 32-bit 7601 Multiprocessor Free Service Pack 1 CPU Genuine Intel(R) CPU T2400 @ 1.83GHz Motherboard Dell Inc. 0JF242 Memory 1.00 GB Graphics Card NVIDIA Quadro NVS 120M Sound Card High Definition Audio Device Monitor(s) Displays 1 Screen Resolution 1680 x 1050 x 32 bits (4294967296 colors) @ 59 Hz |
06 Mar 2013
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#3 | | Desk1 7 Home Prem / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 7 Pro all 64bit |
Well for my money Night Hawk the pc sales have flattened out because of the myriads of younger people being smitten with those awful tablets and iPhones. My son is one of them and he has a $3K build sitting at his place gathering dust. Perhaps I am just an old cynic but I find the need for facebook and all that social crap just plain boring and so depersonalised.
Personally I do like getting inside a machine working out the more unorthodox fixes (usually with hardware) I just find it relaxing and keeps this old brain ticking over. As for the development of ever smaller cores well we all know where that is going and frankly where we are at right now is just fine by me. Having said that I am intrigued by the physics of it.
All in all nothing will kill off the PC for me anyway, and lest face it break one of those new gen devices and it's a throw away job eh? and we are up to our ears in waste as it is. | My System Specs | | Computer type PC/Desktop System Manufacturer/Model Number Own build (new) Desk1 / Toshiba L550 / Desk2 1st build OS Desk1 7 Home Prem / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 7 Pro all 64bit CPU Desk1 i5 3750K / Laptop i5 430m / Desk2 i5 2500 Motherboard Desk1 Asus P877-V / Desk2 Gigabyte H67 UD3H / Laptop ? Memory Desk1 8GB (1866) / Desk2 16GB (1333) / Laptop 8Gb DDR3 Graphics Card Desk 1& 2NVidia GTX 650 & Laptops on board Intel Sound Card Desk 1 & 2 -XONAR DG Realtek High Def audio Laptop Monitor(s) Displays Desk 1 Benq HD 2450 / Desk2 Philips 24" / Laptop 17.5" Screen Resolution 1920x1080 D1 & D2 Keyboard Desk 1 MS Sidewinder X6 Desk 2 MS Sidewinder X 4 Mouse Desk 1&2 - Gigabyte MS 900 gamer - laptop - Logitec wireless PSU Desk 1 Corsair HX 1050/ Laptop ? / Desk 2 Corsair HX 650 Case Desk 1 Cooler HAF XM ? Toshiba laptop / Desk2 Coolermaster Cooling Fans on all Desk1 -2 Desk2 - all Coolermasters 5 Laptop ? Hard Drives Desk1 Samsung 120GB 830 SSD
Toshiba Crucial 120GB SSD
Desk2 Samsung 120GB 830 SSD Internet Speed ADSL2+ Other Info One other Desktop (tester) and spare Toshba laptop both with SSD's
Running Kaspersky 2011 ISS on all machines config'd identically
Logitec audio stereo systems on each machine (x3)
Canon MG5250MFC
Router/modem TP-Link running WPA2SK |
07 Mar 2013
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#4 | | x64 (6.1.7601) Win7_SP1 HomePrem Penn's Forest |
Great article - thanks for posting it.
The only reason I purchased a new machine last year was becasue my previous machine died. It ran software fine and I could probably upgraded to Windows 7. Otherwise I was happy with a AMD Athlon 64 X2 TK-57 / 1.9 GHz dual core and 4 GB of memory.
But, it bit the dust - bad MOBO.
I think you should be able to get 7 to 10 years out of a machine. Businesses run on a 3 to 5 year purchase schedule. | My System Specs | | System Manufacturer/Model Number HP Laptop: Pavilion dv6-6c10us OS x64 (6.1.7601) Win7_SP1 HomePrem CPU AMD A6-3420M APU with Radeon(tm) HD Graphics Motherboard Hewlett-Packard 1805 Memory 6.00 GB Graphics Card AMD Radeon(TM) HD 6520G Sound Card (1) AMD High Definition Audio Device (2) IDT High Definiti Monitor(s) Displays HP W2072a 20" LCD (1600 x 900) @ 60 Hz Screen Resolution 1366 x 768 x 32 bits (4294967296 colors) @ 60 Hz Hard Drives ST640LM0 00 HM641JI SATA Disk Device Internet Speed 15/5 | 54 MB Wireless 'n' Antivirus Realtime: Avast | On-demand: Malwarebytes, ESET Browser IE9 Other Info Media..........| Gimp | Audacity | VLC |
Comm..........| WEmail 2012 | Skype |
Productivity..| OpenOffice | Textpad |
Utils............| MS: Sysinternals | Piriform: cCleaner, Speccy, Defraggler | |
07 Mar 2013
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#5 | | Windows 7 Ultimate x64 SP1 Los Angeles, CA, USA |
I have two desktops that I use: The i7 machine with Windows 7 that's also in my specs, and a Pentium 4 machine with Windows XP that's been with me since 2008 (the machine itself has been around since 2004!).
The latter P4 machine has been retrofitted with gigabit ethernet, USB2.0, and a GeForce 6200 PCI video card (no AGP slots!) to keep up with modern demands, and it has served very well for my work and lighter/older gaming needs, as well as more basic stuff like serving as an alternative computer to use for IRC, Skype, and surfing the internet. It's also showing absolutely no signs of dying or becoming irrelevant any time soon!
The i7 machine was built in March of last year because my P4 machine was simply hitting its limits as far as decoding h.264/AVC HD video and playing more modern games were concerned, among other needs, and I simply needed a modern cutting-edge workhorse. My i7 machine is now my "main" desktop with my P4 serving as the "sub" desktop, but I find both of them equally useful, reliable, and in-need.
As for the article, it was a very good read indeed! In the quagmire of articles that falsely insist PCs are dying/dead because of smartphones/tablets, this article actually looks scientifically in detail at why PC sales are stagnating compared to earlier times and also why PCs are not dying even though sales may be falling off. Thanks for linking it. ( ̄▽ ̄)ノ
P.S. I also have a Pentium III machine from 2001 that's currently sitting quietly waiting for some spare desk space to open up, it's still alive and kicking ass. | My System Specs | | Computer type PC/Desktop System Manufacturer/Model Number N/A (custom-built) OS Windows 7 Ultimate x64 SP1 CPU Intel Core i7 2700K @ 3.5GHz (TurboBoost disabled) Motherboard ASUS P8Z68-V/GEN3 Memory 16GB (4x4GB) Kingston HyperX DDR3 1600MHz @ 1333MHz Graphics Card Nvidia EVGA GeForce 560 Ti 448 Cores Sound Card Realtek High Definition Audio (motherboard integrated) Monitor(s) Displays NEC Multisync EX231W Screen Resolution 1920x1080 @ 60Hz via DVI-D Keyboard Steelseries 6Gv2 Mouse Steelseries Sensei RAW Glossy, Logitech M500 PSU Corsair Professional Series Gold AX850 Case Antec 300 Cooling Air-cooling Hard Drives 2x Western Digital 1TB SATA3 Caviar Black Internal HDD // 1x WD 500GB USB 3.0 "My Passport Essential" External HDD // 1x WD 1TB USB 3.0 "My Passport Essential" External HDD // 2x WD 2TB USB 3.0 "My Passport Essential" External HDD Internet Speed DSL Antivirus Microsoft Security Essentials Browser Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Chromium, IE9 |
07 Mar 2013
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#6 | | Windows 7 Home Premium 64 bit. SP-1 Northern Ohio |
I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy. | My System Specs | | Computer type PC/Desktop System Manufacturer/Model Number Home made Desktop OS Windows 7 Home Premium 64 bit. SP-1 CPU Intel i7-960-3.2 @ 4.25 Motherboard ASUS P6X58D-E Memory KINGSTON KHX2000C9, Hyper X,12 GIGS Graphics Card MSI/Nvidia/460GTX-Cyclone 1GD5/OC Monitor(s) Displays DYNEX 40 IN. Screen Resolution 1920-1080 or 1280-720 HDMI Keyboard M/S 3000 v 2.0 wireless Mouse M/S 5000 wireless PSU Corsair AX-850 Plus Gold Case Corsair 600T (Black) + side panel with 2 140 mm Noctua fans Cooling Corsair H50/2 Noctua NF-P12 (120 mm) Push/Pull- Hard Drives INTEL SSD 120GB-SER 510
Seagate 1TB SATA 600 7200 rpm Hard Drive Internet Speed 3.0 mb Antivirus Microsoft Security Eesentials Browser I.E. 10 default/Firefox Other Info LG BluRay-Read/Write
Sound system
KLipsch-THX
Asus Router RTN-12
2 Noctua 140 added on top of 600t case
Malwarebytes Anti Malware Professional
Windows 7 Firewall |
07 Mar 2013
|
#7 | | Windows 7 Home Premium x64 |
"Buy as much power as you can afford!" That was the standard shopping advice for computers in the 80's, 90's and even into the 00's. The basic idea: "It will give you a hedge against obsolescence." Nowadays, this ain't so much of an issue. I know lots of folks who use 6 - 8 year old PC's without problems. As long as they don't breakdown, they're good to go. | My System Specs | | OS Windows 7 Home Premium x64 |
07 Mar 2013
|
#8 | | Windows 7 Ultimate SP1 (64 bit), Windows XP SP3, Linux Mint 14 MATE (64 bit) Adelaide |
I see several reasons: - The PC market is saturated in the "1st World"
- Old PCs are powerful enough to run most of the popular software packages
- A lot of new software offers almost no benefits to the end user (e.g. new versions of Office)
- Most people don't have the time or inclination to use computationally demanding software (e.g. 3D animation)
- A lot of people never really needed a PC in the first place
Gamers and other enthusiasts (animation, coding, photography, video, etc.) are the only "standard" consumers who need "heavy firepower". | My System Specs | | System Manufacturer/Model Number n/a OS Windows 7 Ultimate SP1 (64 bit), Windows XP SP3, Linux Mint 14 MATE (64 bit) CPU AMD Phenom II x6 1055T, 2.8 GHz Motherboard ASRock 880GMH-LE/USB3 Memory 8GB DDR3 1333 G-Skill Ares F3-1333C9D-8GAO (4GB x 2) Graphics Card ATI Radeon HD6450 Sound Card Realtek? Monitor(s) Displays Samsung S23B350 Screen Resolution 1920x1080 Mouse Wired Optical Case Tower Hard Drives Western Digital 1 TB (SATA), Western Digital 1.5 TB (SATA), Western Digital 2 TB (SATA) Internet Speed DSL Other Info Ubuntu 10.04 (64 bit) replaced with Linux Mint 14 MATE (64 bit) - 2013-01-14
RAM & Graphics Card Upgraded - 2013-01-13
Monitor Upgraded - 2012-04-20
System Upgraded - 2011-05-21, 2010-07-14
HDD Upgraded - 2010-08-11, 2011-08-24 |
07 Mar 2013
|
#9 | | Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8 RP VM, Linux Mint Debian 2nd OS HD- 7 Pro x64 second case New England |
The one constant I found through the years until late '00s was that need to get into a cpu that would push the OS faster. besides that the evergrowing need for more ram was satisfied in the last 4-5yrs. roughly with the drastic increase in capacities suddenly thrust onto the market.
Do you actually need a board that can run 16gb, 24gb, 32gb, or more in everyday use? Most will never have the need!
As for the cpus you once ran a single cpu that slumped next to one that was only 200mhz faster! If you upgraded an old Atholon XP3000 2ghz cpu to one faster like an XP3200 or XP3400 model found on OEM machines you suddenly noticed a leap! Once you got past the 3ghz running a dual core or quad cpu however that same 200mhz jump between models basically amounts to a number only as seen when upgrading from a Phenom II X4 965 3.2ghz to the 975 3.4ghz model.
The real difference seen over the last few years besides moving into a quad from a dual core would be ram having taxed the old 4gb system and running out of resources for things like running multiple VMs simultaneously and CAD. You then need that extra to cover things.
On most custom cases they have always lasted a long time until the last case saw both board and supply with the supply likely taking the board with it need replacements. The present case saw the first board cooked by a faulty supply again seeing both replaced. Other then those two setbacks the only other problem now being is with a replacement drive stuck in the old case when the original Vista to 7 beta host drive had to be pulled due to age and wear. The new drive maybe having some problems since attempts to put a fresh copy of Vista by dvd and flash key failed and XP barely got on.
Besides all that however the primary use for the old case set up for a friend was to replace an old XP build where the board or cpu died from age and the case itself literally fell apart! The friend shops online and plays some basic online games like those by the way seen on FaceBook. Nothing demanding where he would need the 8gb of one brand of memory since he is still running the 32bit Windows.
(He is now considering a look at 7 however where the 64bit could be advised.)
For the present 7 case here however the extra was planned out ahead of time to cover the things the last build wasn't able to as well as allowing for other things to come that might need that extra. At the same time the daily tasks are not that demanding except for those times when something new is being tried out. Something that taxes system resources that is. | My System Specs | | OS Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8 RP VM, Linux Mint Debian 2nd OS HD- 7 Pro x64 second case CPU AMD Phenom II X4 975 Deneb 3.6ghz - 965 on new mini tower Motherboard Gigabyte GA-790XTA-UD4 Memory Kingston Hyper X DDR3 1600 1.5v 16gb - Mushkin on 2nd build Graphics Card MSI HD Radeon 5750 1gb - MSI HD Radeon 6450 on mini tower Sound Card Creative Labs X-Fi XtremeGamer - Realtek onooard 2nd case Monitor(s) Displays 2 x Acer P191W 19" widesscreen - HP 20" widescreen mini towe Screen Resolution 1440x900 native - 1600x1024 on 7 Pro x64 build Keyboard Microsoft Recusa Razor - MS Comfort 3000 on second build Mouse MS Trackball Explorer - A4TECH dual scroll wheel trackball PSU Corsair 750TX - primary / Corsair CX600 - second Case Antec 900-2 - SSD compatible / NZXT Vulcan mini tower Cooling Zalman CNPS9900A Hard Drives Primary Ultimate x64 build-
WD Black Edition 1tb Sata 6.0 = 2
WD Black Edition 1tb Sata 3.0 = 2 (OS drives)
WD 1tb Green Power sata = 2 1 external
usb flash drives = 18
Second 7 Pro x64 mini tower-
WD Caviar SE 500gb sata II single drive presen Internet Speed 30mbps upgrade - primary hard wired - mini tower usb WiFi |
07 Mar 2013
|
#10 | | Desk1 7 Home Prem / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 7 Pro all 64bit |

Quote: Originally Posted by Layback Bear I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy. Yep so right about the throw away comment and I for one think it is disgusting how these cheap and cheerful devices are in are made from what I consider slave labour not only in the manufacturing sites but also those site where the raw materials come from something that most of the apathetic public users are not really concerned about or I would hazard a guess at even caring if they knew.
But I guess this goes on with a lot of the well known brands of merchandise | My System Specs | | Computer type PC/Desktop System Manufacturer/Model Number Own build (new) Desk1 / Toshiba L550 / Desk2 1st build OS Desk1 7 Home Prem / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 7 Pro all 64bit CPU Desk1 i5 3750K / Laptop i5 430m / Desk2 i5 2500 Motherboard Desk1 Asus P877-V / Desk2 Gigabyte H67 UD3H / Laptop ? Memory Desk1 8GB (1866) / Desk2 16GB (1333) / Laptop 8Gb DDR3 Graphics Card Desk 1& 2NVidia GTX 650 & Laptops on board Intel Sound Card Desk 1 & 2 -XONAR DG Realtek High Def audio Laptop Monitor(s) Displays Desk 1 Benq HD 2450 / Desk2 Philips 24" / Laptop 17.5" Screen Resolution 1920x1080 D1 & D2 Keyboard Desk 1 MS Sidewinder X6 Desk 2 MS Sidewinder X 4 Mouse Desk 1&2 - Gigabyte MS 900 gamer - laptop - Logitec wireless PSU Desk 1 Corsair HX 1050/ Laptop ? / Desk 2 Corsair HX 650 Case Desk 1 Cooler HAF XM ? Toshiba laptop / Desk2 Coolermaster Cooling Fans on all Desk1 -2 Desk2 - all Coolermasters 5 Laptop ? Hard Drives Desk1 Samsung 120GB 830 SSD
Toshiba Crucial 120GB SSD
Desk2 Samsung 120GB 830 SSD Internet Speed ADSL2+ Other Info One other Desktop (tester) and spare Toshba laptop both with SSD's
Running Kaspersky 2011 ISS on all machines config'd identically
Logitec audio stereo systems on each machine (x3)
Canon MG5250MFC
Router/modem TP-Link running WPA2SK Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC problems? All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:50 AM. | |