Windows 7 Forums
Welcome to Windows 7 Forums. Our forum is dedicated to helping you find support and solutions for any problems regarding your Windows 7 PC be it Dell, HP, Acer, Asus or a custom build. We also provide an extensive Windows 7 tutorial section that covers a wide range of tips and tricks.


Windows 7: Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC


06 Mar 2013   #1
Night Hawk

Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8.1 Preview VM - 7 Pro x64 second remote tower
 
 
Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

Quote:
Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

Brad Chacos @BradChacos
Mar 5, 2013 3:00 AM

While rumors of the PC's demise are greatly exaggerated—an industry that moved more than 350 million units in 2012 is not "dead"—computers undoubtedly aren't selling as quickly as they once did. Analysts forecast PC sales to far exceed tablet sales for the foreseeable future, but the growth rate for PC sales has utterly and completely flatlined.

The big question, of course, is why?

A couple of theories inform conventional wisdom. Most pundits blame stagnant PC sales on the likewise stagnant economy, or point toward the ascension of smartphones and tablets. Others argue (fairly persuasively) that the flattening of growth is attributable to the idiosyncrasies of PC sales in developing countries, where computers are a rarely replaced luxury item. A second wave, analysts say, has yet to come after an initial surge in sales in those nations.

Like most economic sectors, the PC market is influenced by myriad factors, and some truth lies in all three of those explanations. After watching my mother-in-law happily troll Facebook and sling emails on her nearly ten-year-old Pentium 4 computer, however, an even more insidious possibility slipped into my head.




Did CPU performance reach a "good enough" level for mainstream users some years back? Are older computers still potent enough to complete an average Joe's everyday tasks, reducing the incentive to upgrade?

"It used to be you had to replace your PC every few years or you were way behind. If you didn't, you couldn't even run the latest software," says Linley Gwennap, the principal analyst at the Linley Group, a research firm that focuses on semiconductors and processors. "Now you can hold onto your PC five, six, seven years with no problem. Yeah, it might be a little slow, but not enough to really show up [in everyday use]."

Old processors are still OK for everyday use


This may come as a shock to performance-pushing PC enthusiasts but the average Joe almost never encodes videos, nor will you catch him fragging fools in Crysis 3. Instead, Average Joe spends most of his time on mundane, often Web-centric tasks: Buying stuff online, sending emails, engaging friends and family on social media, maybe watching the occasional YouTube video—on default resolutions, natch, not high-definition—or playing a few hands of Solitaire.

In other words, hardly the kind of activity that begs for an overclocked, water-cooled, hyper-threaded Core i7 processor. Or even a modern-day Ivy Bridge Core i3 processor, if we're being honest.
see full report


My System SpecsSystem Spec
06 Mar 2013   #2
bberkey1

Microsoft Windows 7 Professional 64-bit 7601 Multiprocessor Free Service Pack 1
 
 

That was a very good article. I'm currently using an 06-07 dell lattidue with Genuine Intel(R) CPU T2400 @ 1.83GHz, 1 GB Ram and 55GB Hard Drive.

I limit the amount of programs installed and keep it pretty clutter free with externals, but the article holds true. I've never had any real problems with it, maybe a lag or two perhaps the drivers need an update, but I use it every day (not a gamer or audio/video editor) but she runs pretty smoothly and accomplishes my tasks. That being said I am going to be building a custom PC near the end of the year, but I'll hold on to this girl as my travel computer for sure.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
06 Mar 2013   #3
ICit2lol

Desk1 8 Pro / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 8.1 Pro all 64bit
 
 

Well for my money Night Hawk the pc sales have flattened out because of the myriads of younger people being smitten with those awful tablets and iPhones. My son is one of them and he has a $3K build sitting at his place gathering dust. Perhaps I am just an old cynic but I find the need for facebook and all that social crap just plain boring and so depersonalised.

Personally I do like getting inside a machine working out the more unorthodox fixes (usually with hardware) I just find it relaxing and keeps this old brain ticking over. As for the development of ever smaller cores well we all know where that is going and frankly where we are at right now is just fine by me. Having said that I am intrigued by the physics of it.

All in all nothing will kill off the PC for me anyway, and lest face it break one of those new gen devices and it's a throw away job eh? and we are up to our ears in waste as it is.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #4
Slartybart

x64 (6.3.9600) Win8.1 Pro & soon dual boot x64 (6.1.7601) Win7_SP1 HomePrem
 
 

Great article - thanks for posting it.

The only reason I purchased a new machine last year was becasue my previous machine died. It ran software fine and I could probably upgraded to Win7. Otherwise I was happy with a AMD Athlon 64 X2 TK-57 / 1.9 GHz dual core and 4 GB of memory.

But, it bit the dust - bad MOBO.

I think you should be able to get 7 to 10 years out of a machine. Businesses run on a 3 to 5 year purchase schedule.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #5
King Arthur

Windows 7 Ultimate x64 SP1
 
 

I have two desktops that I use: The i7 machine with Windows 7 that's also in my specs, and a Pentium 4 machine with Windows XP that's been with me since 2008 (the machine itself has been around since 2004!).

The latter P4 machine has been retrofitted with gigabit ethernet, USB2.0, and a GeForce 6200 PCI video card (no AGP slots!) to keep up with modern demands, and it has served very well for my work and lighter/older gaming needs, as well as more basic stuff like serving as an alternative computer to use for IRC, Skype, and surfing the internet. It's also showing absolutely no signs of dying or becoming irrelevant any time soon!

The i7 machine was built in March of last year because my P4 machine was simply hitting its limits as far as decoding h.264/AVC HD video and playing more modern games were concerned, among other needs, and I simply needed a modern cutting-edge workhorse. My i7 machine is now my "main" desktop with my P4 serving as the "sub" desktop, but I find both of them equally useful, reliable, and in-need.

As for the article, it was a very good read indeed! In the quagmire of articles that falsely insist PCs are dying/dead because of smartphones/tablets, this article actually looks scientifically in detail at why PC sales are stagnating compared to earlier times and also why PCs are not dying even though sales may be falling off. Thanks for linking it. ( ̄▽ ̄)ノ

P.S. I also have a Pentium III machine from 2001 that's currently sitting quietly waiting for some spare desk space to open up, it's still alive and kicking ass.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #6
Layback Bear

Windows 7 Pro. 64/SP-1
 
 

I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #7
spencer1

Windows 7 Home Premium x64
 
 

"Buy as much power as you can afford!" That was the standard shopping advice for computers in the 80's, 90's and even into the 00's. The basic idea: "It will give you a hedge against obsolescence." Nowadays, this ain't so much of an issue. I know lots of folks who use 6 - 8 year old PC's without problems. As long as they don't breakdown, they're good to go.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #8
lehnerus2000

Windows 7 Ultimate SP1 (64 bit), Windows XP SP3, Linux Mint 17 MATE (64 bit)
 
 

I see several reasons:
  • The PC market is saturated in the "1st World"
  • Old PCs are powerful enough to run most of the popular software packages
  • A lot of new software offers almost no benefits to the end user (e.g. new versions of Office)
  • Most people don't have the time or inclination to use computationally demanding software (e.g. 3D animation)
  • A lot of people never really needed a PC in the first place
Gamers and other enthusiasts (animation, coding, photography, video, etc.) are the only "standard" consumers who need "heavy firepower".
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #9
Night Hawk

Windows 7 Ultimate x64, XP Mode, W8.1 Preview VM - 7 Pro x64 second remote tower
 
 

The one constant I found through the years until late '00s was that need to get into a cpu that would push the OS faster. besides that the evergrowing need for more ram was satisfied in the last 4-5yrs. roughly with the drastic increase in capacities suddenly thrust onto the market.

Do you actually need a board that can run 16gb, 24gb, 32gb, or more in everyday use? Most will never have the need!

As for the cpus you once ran a single cpu that slumped next to one that was only 200mhz faster! If you upgraded an old Atholon XP3000 2ghz cpu to one faster like an XP3200 or XP3400 model found on OEM machines you suddenly noticed a leap! Once you got past the 3ghz running a dual core or quad cpu however that same 200mhz jump between models basically amounts to a number only as seen when upgrading from a Phenom II X4 965 3.2ghz to the 975 3.4ghz model.

The real difference seen over the last few years besides moving into a quad from a dual core would be ram having taxed the old 4gb system and running out of resources for things like running multiple VMs simultaneously and CAD. You then need that extra to cover things.

On most custom cases they have always lasted a long time until the last case saw both board and supply with the supply likely taking the board with it need replacements. The present case saw the first board cooked by a faulty supply again seeing both replaced. Other then those two setbacks the only other problem now being is with a replacement drive stuck in the old case when the original Vista to 7 beta host drive had to be pulled due to age and wear. The new drive maybe having some problems since attempts to put a fresh copy of Vista by dvd and flash key failed and XP barely got on.

Besides all that however the primary use for the old case set up for a friend was to replace an old XP build where the board or cpu died from age and the case itself literally fell apart! The friend shops online and plays some basic online games like those by the way seen on FaceBook. Nothing demanding where he would need the 8gb of one brand of memory since he is still running the 32bit Windows.
(He is now considering a look at 7 however where the 64bit could be advised.)

For the present 7 case here however the extra was planned out ahead of time to cover the things the last build wasn't able to as well as allowing for other things to come that might need that extra. At the same time the daily tasks are not that demanding except for those times when something new is being tried out. Something that taxes system resources that is.
My System SpecsSystem Spec
07 Mar 2013   #10
ICit2lol

Desk1 8 Pro / Desk2 7 Home Prem / Laptop 8.1 Pro all 64bit
 
 

Quote   Quote: Originally Posted by Layback Bear View Post
I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy.
Yep so right about the throw away comment and I for one think it is disgusting how these cheap and cheerful devices are in are made from what I consider slave labour not only in the manufacturing sites but also those site where the raw materials come from something that most of the apathetic public users are not really concerned about or I would hazard a guess at even caring if they knew.
But I guess this goes on with a lot of the well known brands of merchandise
My System SpecsSystem Spec
Reply

 Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC




Thread Tools



Similar help and support threads for2: Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC
Thread Forum
Sir Patrick Moore RIP Chillout Room
Moore's Law Nearing Collapse, Says Physicist News
Help this BSOD is killing me right now BSOD Help and Support
Please help, BSOD killing me. BSOD Help and Support
my WMC is killing me! Media Center
Gates: Everyone Spoiled by Moore's Law Chillout Room
10.3 is killing me Graphic Cards

Our Sites

Site Links

About Us

Find Us

Windows 7 Forums is an independent web site and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Microsoft Corporation. "Windows 7" and related materials are trademarks of Microsoft Corp.

Designer Media Ltd

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:10 PM.
Twitter Facebook Google+



Windows 7 Forums

Seven Forums Android App Seven Forums IOS App