Windows XP No-Support Deadline Has Arrived -- Ignore At Your Peril
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Even if XP still has a huge market share for its age, it clearly is declining.
Look here to see how W7 has been on a steady increase (and W8.1 as well, even on much lower level).
I predict:
- XP will continue to lose 1-2% each month (now with end of support) to be at ~15% at end of the year
- XP will continue having single digit market share for years to come
- W7 will level out a bit above 50%
- W 8.1. will reach 10% until W9 arrives
- W9 (expected 2015) will eliminate the W7 and W 8.1. growth. How many will convert to W9 obviously will depend on if it is a dud again.
- W7 and W8.1. will decline at the same time. W7 since it will get old, W8.1. because W9 (hopefully) will be what W8 should have been.
- If there are some world-wide bugs that take down XP systems publicly, the XP decline will be even faster.
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That if point 5 really aplies, this meaning true serious UI for Desktop and Laptop users, otherwise, this would make W7 even stronger, and having a similar lifetime like XP had...
W9 really needs to take out all the Modern UI nonsense and focus on serious usage, they alreaddy have Windows RT for mobile devices, their silly idea of subscriptions for paying for every use (or montly or yearly) by forcing Modern UI and RT apps model is just silly... at least for a serious content maker...
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Good Point, FerchgotX. but in 2015 barely any more people will have W7 licenses. Whoever has one, probably installed it by now. Also in 2015 W9 will be vastly more secure than the (then) dated W7. So anyone spending money on new OS, likely installs W9.
From what I see what MS is trying to do with W8.1. etc., I think they learned their lesson the hard way and will make W9 better than W 8 regarding GUI.
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Good Point, FerchgotX. but in 2015 barely any more people will have W7 licenses. Whoever has one, probably installed it by now. Also in 2015 W9 will be vastly more secure than the (then) dated W7. So anyone spending money on new OS, likely installs W9.
From what I see what MS is trying to do with W8.1. etc., I think they learned their lesson the hard way and will make W9 better than W 8 regarding GUI.
All that is assuming W9 isn't another flop like Win 8.
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Good Point, FerchgotX. but in 2015 barely any more people will have W7 licenses. Whoever has one, probably installed it by now. Also in 2015 W9 will be vastly more secure than the (then) dated W7. So anyone spending money on new OS, likely installs W9.
From what I see what MS is trying to do with W8.1. etc., I think they learned their lesson the hard way and will make W9 better than W 8 regarding GUI.
That has two branches:
Windows 9 Improves GUI for serious users:
If Windows 9 returns the power of destop in devices that rely on it (PC, laptop, netbook), retrives all options like restoring network and shared resources control applet to full functionality (instead of forcing you to change that via Modern UI) and many others, and keeps Windows RT for mobile markets, then, probably lots of users will switch or buy licenses for Windows 9, taking in mind hardware requirement trends nowadays, even current Windows 7 users could switch without even upgrading a piece of hardware, thisng that will surely win a big market place. That with increased security will add a boost on Windows power in market.
Windows 9 tries to force again their crap:
If that happens, it doesn't matter how much the security is improved, Windows 7 will increase it's market quota easily, now, that taking in mind how much you can improve security from Windows 7, because the OS will still be having updates and critical patches until 2020, and if the trend continues, Windows 7 will have similar lifetime like XP had. Now, this has worse spectations, because, if MS continues to force something unusable for serious users and even reducing lifetime for a good OS that many people use, this means that Linux can win that part of the market, which can be really big at that time. This means even bad numbers for the new OS.
I really, REALLY hope MS learned the lesson and ditch their silly ideas about dumbing down an OS, Apple didn't need to unify a GUI for all devices, why should MS, which has better market and ideas for this, need to do it?
MS has a choice, one leads to sucess as they always had, the other leads to a total dead end...
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