New
#1
I think whoever buys a new HDD in 2011 won't be using XP anymore anyway. It already is in extended support, and support will end 2014. Won't we almost have the W8 beta by then ;-)
But even if someone is in need of a new HDD by 2011 and wants to keep the rest of the PC including OS, it sounds like the new drives still can "pretend" to be 512 byte drives (possibly with slower speed or capacity, but probably faster than what they will replace). Whoever has an XP PC now, probably has an at least 3 year old PC, by 2011 it is 4+ years. Little likely to keep it then if a new HDD is needed. With new HDD most people install the OS new to have a fresh install. That is a good time to upgrade to W7.
I'm also thinking some of the older HDD still will be on sale for a while.