I had an old Dell Dimension 8100 (I believe), has a Pentium 4 1.5 GHz, 512 MB of RAM, and an ATI Radeon 9700 Pro. This thing barely ran Windows XP. Just because I felt like it I threw Windows Vista on this machine couple months after it was released. Now it ran as well as Windows XP, slow but bearable. However, anything having to do with the UI was responsive and fast, if I turned Aero off on this machine it was horrible. Even with classic.
Using Aero is not going to bring around any more overhead then any other. The GPU can better handle the workload of Aero with ease, compared to processing games Aero is a walk in the park for any DirectX 9 graphics card. The Radeon 9700 came out in around 2002 and it is more then capable of running Aero. What you have to watch for is embed craphics.
Also as for memory, Aero lives on VRAM not System RAM if you have WDDM 1.1 drivers, otherwise only a portion of Aero resides on System RAM. However, the amount used is so insignificant. Freeing up CPU cycles versus freeing up RAM will net much better results for performance.