Hurricane Tracking 2012

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  1. Posts : 2,686
    Windows 8.1 Pro w/Media Center 64bit, Windows 7 HP 64bit
    Thread Starter
       #31

    2pm 8/22


    Large ridge over Florida and gulf controlling Isaac and pushing it Westward. Depending on when this ridge moves on will determine where Isaac will go. Models have it all over Florida early Monday.

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isaac.png

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isacc-radar.jpg

    TD 10 looks to stay in the Atlantic and not get very strong.

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-td-10.png


    Jim
      My Computer


  2. Posts : 2,686
    Windows 8.1 Pro w/Media Center 64bit, Windows 7 HP 64bit
    Thread Starter
       #32

    5pm 8/23


    More western route for Isaac but its still early. Staying in the Gulf off of Florida West coast and heading for Pensacola, FL.
    Lots of changes can happen in 5 days.

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isaac-2.png

    TS Joyce to stay in Atlantic but may threaten Bermuda.

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-joyce.png

    Jim
      My Computer


  3. whs
    Posts : 26,210
    Vista, Windows7, Mint Mate, Zorin, Windows 8
       #33

    Go west Isaac - I don't want to get my house shaken (north of Tampa).
      My Computer


  4. Posts : 2,686
    Windows 8.1 Pro w/Media Center 64bit, Windows 7 HP 64bit
    Thread Starter
       #34

    whs said:
    Go west Isaac - I don't want to get my house shaken (north of Tampa).
    NO,NO,NO!!! I live North of New Orleans. For now it looks to be heading into the Gulf and heading toward the Florida panhandle but it's still too early to tell.

    2pm Update

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isaac-3.png

    11am update on Joyce.

    JOYCE NO LONGER SATISFIES THE CRITERIA FOR BEING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
    Jim
      My Computer


  5. whs
    Posts : 26,210
    Vista, Windows7, Mint Mate, Zorin, Windows 8
       #35

    Jim, in New Orleans you are safe I suppose. They fixed everything after Katrina.
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  6. Posts : 2,686
    Windows 8.1 Pro w/Media Center 64bit, Windows 7 HP 64bit
    Thread Starter
       #36

    Sun 11am 8/26


    Big change in the forecast but NHC models are all over the place so there are not real sure yet. This looks like a tought one to call. Starting making my preps today.
    THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY 3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isaac-7.png

    Jim
      My Computer


  7. whs
    Posts : 26,210
    Vista, Windows7, Mint Mate, Zorin, Windows 8
       #37

    That's the picture I get from Stormpulse.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Hurricane Tracking 2012-2012-08-26_2108.png  
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  8. Posts : 24,479
    Windows 7 Ultimate X64 SP1
       #38

    I know you three are in the hurricane zone, anyone else?
    Predictions are for 10"+ of rain along coastal areas.
    Hurricane Tracking 2012-isaac.jpg
      My Computer


  9. Posts : 2,171
    Windows 7 Ultimate x64
       #39

    A few computer models:

    Hurricane Tracking 2012-at201209_model.gif

    I'm about 20 to 30 miles west of New Orleans. The weather outlook for us is deteriorating.
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  10. Posts : 24,479
    Windows 7 Ultimate X64 SP1
       #40

    I heard one "expert" say Isaac would be one of the most difficult tack to predict in recent history. I assumed that was always the case.
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