New
#31
NO,NO,NO!!! I live North of New Orleans. For now it looks to be heading into the Gulf and heading toward the Florida panhandle but it's still too early to tell.
2pm Update
11am update on Joyce.
JimJOYCE NO LONGER SATISFIES THE CRITERIA FOR BEING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
Big change in the forecast but NHC models are all over the place so there are not real sure yet. This looks like a tought one to call. Starting making my preps today.
THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY 3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
Jim
I know you three are in the hurricane zone, anyone else?
Predictions are for 10"+ of rain along coastal areas.
A few computer models:
I'm about 20 to 30 miles west of New Orleans. The weather outlook for us is deteriorating.
I heard one "expert" say Isaac would be one of the most difficult tack to predict in recent history. I assumed that was always the case.