Windows 10 versus Windows 7: Whose numbers do you trust?

[Brink]

Are users really in love with Windows 7? Or are they clinging to old habits as Windows 10 rolls out? Three popular data sources offer very different answers. Regardless of which one you choose, take that data with a heaping helping of salt.

Long-term shifts in the installed base for Windows PCs are nothing new. For decades, businesses have been dealing with the logistics and the costs of migrating from one Windows version to another.
As my colleague Steve Ranger noted earlier this week, the shift to Windows 10 is following that familiar pattern, with the current corporate standard OS, Windows 7, hanging on tenaciously.

I've been following the same transition, and my view of how it's playing out differs a bit from Steve's. Part of the difference of opinion is just a matter of interpretation, of course, but a larger part comes from the data itself.
His analysis was based on numbers from Net Applications (aka NetMarketShare). I find that data source extremely problematic.

I first wrote about the problems with this data three years ago (see Net Market Share vs. StatCounter: Whose online measurements can you trust?). A fresh look at current data reveals that those problems still exist.

For this post, I've assembled the latest usage figures from NetMarketShare and from two other highly regarded sources that release similar data. The first is StatCounter Global Stats. The second is the US government's Digital Analytics program, which I've written about previously (November 2015, February 2016, and June 2016).

The following series of tables offer a summary of Windows usage worldwide over the second half of 2016. (Note that for the sake of apples-to-apples comparisons, I have normalized the StatCounter numbers so that they represent the same population of Windows PCs as the other two data sources.)

Three data sources, three very different views of the Windows installed base.

A few obvious conclusions leap off the chart.

First, Windows 7 and Windows 10 completely dominate PC usage, accounting collectively for 72.7 percent to 88.9 percent of visits from the installed base. That's a pretty wide range, though, which I'll get into in a moment.
Second, about half of the installed base continues to use Windows 7, with all three data sources pegging the number within a couple points of 50 percent.

Windows 8.x usage is steadily shrinking, and all three sources agree that only the most determined of dead-enders (roughly 1 percent) still use Windows Vista, whose end-of-support date is less than 90 days away.

Finally, Windows 10 usage has increased since the one-year free upgrade offer ended in July 2016. Converted to an annualized rate, Windows 10 usage grew by somewhere between 8 percent and 12.5 percent per year. Again, that's a pretty big spread.

Where the three sources diverge most dramatically is in their measurement of how many people are still using Windows XP, which has been unsupported for nearly three years. NetMarket Share says a staggering 9.1 percent of its visitors use XP, while DAP shows XP usage down near Vista levels, under 2 percent.

So, who do you believe? Start by looking carefully at where the data comes from...

Read more: Windows 10 versus Windows 7: Whose numbers do you trust? | ZDNet

 

[lehnerus2000]

Popularity "bottom line":

W7 > W10 > XP & W8 series > Others
​

 

[Layback Bear]

I think a better way to measure things would be how many W-10 were sold.
The problem with that is only Microsoft could give that exact number and they would lie to make W-10 look better than it really is.

In the business world, one of the first measuring sticks is sales.
Another measuring stick would be the profits the sales made.
Again another measuring stick would be the loss of profit with all the give away products and or services.

Giving a lot of candy away does not indicate how good your candy is.
Sales of candy is a good indication of how the public likes or dislikes your candy.

To me the rest of the charts and graphs mean very little.

Why would a advertiser care what hardware, programs or operating system was used to visit their site?
All they care about is how many visited the site or advertisement got.
Why would a government agency care what was use to get to their site?

I think the last question would be why should one believe the charts and graphs gathered by those who could care less what operating system one uses to visit their site or advertisement.

Just my opinion.

Jack

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
I trust my numbers
3 win-7's another unused so far.
1-8.1 just installed to get rid of 10
1-10 used it last weekend for one day after letting it sit for 6 months unused where it will most like go again

 

[mjf]

Most people buy OEM desktops or laptops/notepads for personal use. They come with Windows 10 whether you like it or not and so Windows 10 use will grow. The corporate market IMO are slower to change (for good reason) and will probably have more muscle to hang on to Windows 7 for longer even beyond its official EOL.

I know quite a number of us here build our own PCs but we are in the minority.

 

[Indianatone]

Trouble with Microsoft and their OS figures is if you buy a Pro Version you can downgrade to any supported OS. Companies are still rolling out machines with their corporate OS image of 7 on the machine even though the machine came and counts as a windows 10 sale. Windows 10 is not something I am prepared to use. Just installed a fresh copy of Ultimate 64 with all the patches downloaded in no time at all thanks to the end of the must install 10 at all costs deal. Hoping M$ will come up with something for users like us 7 diehards. Hell I would pay a subscription to keep my 7 on my machines. I have 13 of them and numerous VM so it would have to be cheap and per household. So why not develop Windows Classic based on 7 with a few updates and once it is end of life offer subs to those who want to keep the status quo. I have a feeling this will be a bigger mess than XP ending and so many do not want to go down the crazy 10 spyware route.

 

[georgeks]

Have we taken into account the abysmal ignorance of the average computer user when it come to security?
Another issue appears to me as influencing user's decision: Not all have the financial means to upgrade their systems so as to support the latest Windows versions (my country of origin is Greece, so I know ...)

I work in an IT company, and yes, I perform a lot of W10 installations and upgrades, to systems that have not yet reached an end user, so OEMs push W10 and eventually their user base will grow one way or another.

 

[Metastasis666]

I still use windows 7 and XP until they will start no more. I think the unending upgrade of windows products will really divide all the users. I think xp/7 is a rock solid operating system and windows 10 needs a bit of maturity to gain a large audience.

 

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Figures for Win 10 adoption are skewed somewhat because of the number of "upgrades" people were tricked into making. I know a lot of people who wound up getting Win 10 because they didn't know any better.

 

[marytran]

I've switched to Windows 10 for a while and so far so good. There's nothing to complain about. Compared to Windows 7, it has more useful and interesting features.

However, if your hardware is low, then probably shouldn't upgrade to Windows 10.

 

[Jody Thornton]

But I think that the same hardware would run 10 as easily as 7.

 

[ICIT2LOL]

I was just thinking about how the numbers stack up given that some of us run 7 and 10 on different machines and even a dual boot OS's on some of those too. Myself I still think 7 is more user friendly although I configure my Start screen in 10 to look like 7 and find it easier to navigate then.

Now for sales out here it seems to me that less computers especially laptops are being offered with 7 as an option which is a disappointment to me at least.

 

[pippox0]

Windows7 support ends on 2020, so don't give up buy a windows7 retail DVD and take safe for future use in case of disaster recovery.
Or create install media from your windows7 pc , like i do.

 

[LevelBest]

create install media from your windows7 pc , like i do.

Could you explain what that is exactly and how to go about it?

LevelBest

 

[RogerR]

There is no compelling reason for most users to change to 10. Touchscreen is about the only the only function pushing any upgrade past 7. It's unfortunate that its near monopoly encourages MS to force largely undesired changes on the public at large.
No doubt the windows consortium can see the future more clearly than I can - Android taking over the world - but I find their attempts to hold back the green tide as counter-productive. Just as Firefox is losing market share by emulating Chrome, MS is missing the point with the 10 spyware model. Copying an innovator does not make you an innovator.

The sole reason 10 is 'viable' at all is because it ships installed with every new lap and desktop. If you had to buy the OS and 7 was a dollar less than 10 - how many would choose 10?

 

[pippox0]

Could you explain what that is exactly and how to go about it?

LevelBest

Hi,
here is explained by Microsoft

https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ff621489.aspx

BTW -> Start -> Search "System repair disc" then launch the tool that will create a bootable recovery disc.

Anyway you can get windows key from your Pc and download the iso from microsoft
Cheers

 

[ICIT2LOL]

Could you explain what that is exactly and how to go about it?

LevelBest

Now in addition to pippox0"s suggestion here is another great site to download an ISO from Microsoft you just need to be careful what version you download the bit version and that you already have an activation code for the machine you are installing on. That you will have seen on the sticker attached to the machine somewhere

There are quite a few different methods of getting the ISO but what we have linked here are probably the easiest - I have used the Heidoc site quite a few times now and another thing to think about is when you make the bootable disk (particularly) or stick is to burn it at the slowest rate you can pick 4x is the highest I would recommend you use - any higher and you run the risk of the disk being badly finished or even corrupted.

Edit:An afterthought it would be a good idea if you can afford it to buy a new hard drive to install on better still a SSD and just transfer the data and programs onto from the old drive. The SSD would make a ton of difference.

 

[LevelBest]

Windows7 support ends on 2020, so don't give up buy a windows7 retail DVD and take safe for future use in case of disaster recovery.
Or create install media from your windows7 pc , like i do.

Given that this was in the context of W7 coming to an end, I thought 'create install media from your Win7 PC' was a way of copying the Win7 programme and files from your existing PC to transfer Win7 to a new computer. Oh well, nice thought!

 

[ThrashZone]

Given that this was in the context of W7 coming to an end, I thought 'create install media from your Win7 PC' was a way of copying the Win7 programme and files from your existing PC to transfer Win7 to a new computer. Oh well, nice thought!

Hi,
This should work
You do need a new activation key and the same version of windows probably
Make Windows 7 bootable after motherboard swap

 

[ICIT2LOL]

Given that this was in the context of W7 coming to an end, I thought 'create install media from your Win7 PC' was a way of copying the Win7 programme and files from your existing PC to transfer Win7 to a new computer. Oh well, nice thought!

In addition to Thrash Zones suggestion personally what you propose to me is making yourself a lot of work. Me i would opt for a clean install using an ISO for Win 7. Doing it this way you only need to make a bootable disk or stick and use the activation code on the machine's sticker. It goes before saying you must pick the correct bit version that the activation code is for, and make the disk or stick bootable. The disk or stick I would advise you to burn the ISO at the slowest rate you can it will avoid any issues with files copying badly or being corrupted.

Now I would say just one thing though and that is when I do a clean install I always make sure the drive is cleaned or wiped with DISKPART or Partition Wizard so that I am fairly sure nothing from the original install is left behind.

Now I have to add that that is me being a little pedantic but from past experience I find this the only thing to do with the drive first after finding a straight format sometimes leaves remnants of the previous install which can cause issues with the clean install. Mind you a new drive circumvents having to clean the drive first and it would certainly give you the opportunity to install on a SSD as well. But it is your budget and choice of course.

The old drive after you have finished transferring data and programs if you so wish can be wiped and used as a spare.