What's the next generation install media?

antalgebra said:

for the sake of rebuttle, my car stereo is now equipped with a USB reader, capable of reading MP3's. I now OFFICIALLY have absolutely no need for a CD ever again. As history shows, the time between each 'jump' has the majority to do with CONSUMER's cost, not producer's. cheap music players were the sole reason why CD's stood around so long. cheap DVD video players will be the reason why DVD players will stay in the running for a long time to come. What's the cost of a computer USB port? $1 at a swap meet? and the cost of a blue-ray player? 200 bucks? overall consumer demand will show that people prefer what is least expensive alternative, and if something can run without any additional hardware, people will jump on it.

aside, who wouldnt want a free 8GB re-writable Microsoft branded USB thumb-drive with their purchase of Office 2010? the cost to the manufacture them is just a couple bucks and declining... and the worth to 'turn a few heads' on the software isle when Ms Grandma is purchasing her accounting tools? priceless.

Also depending on the size of the Flash Drive/SD Card a company provides, could use it to back-up files for that program/OS.

I think it would be a great idea. I'm sure they (Microsoft and other companies) have thought about this with all the netbooks getting so popular. You know it will happen at some point....I wish they would at least offer Se7en on flash drive as an option. One of our gurus said they will....I guess we'll see what happens.

antalgebra said:

for the sake of rebuttle, my car stereo is now equipped with a USB reader, capable of reading MP3's. I now OFFICIALLY have absolutely no need for a CD ever again. As history shows, the time between each 'jump' has the majority to do with CONSUMER's cost, not producer's.

That is only true when the consumers no longer have the means to get the specific hardware required. You guys talk about computers not coming with optical drives, but that's just not true. Only netbooks, UMPCs, and other crossover mobile/computing devices don't come pre-equipped with an optical drive. ALL DESKTOPS come with one, regardless of where you buy it, except for crossover/mobile desktops like the Eee Box. And pretty much all regular laptops still come with them.

Because optical media is the defacto, consumers expect to get an optical drive with a new computer. Neither consumer cost nor manufacturer costs will be the ultimate deciding factor in the long run (even though it affects things now). The ultimate breaking point for a change in media will be when consumers become comfortable with the new technology. And your average middle-aged person isn't going to be comfortable with anything other than a CD/DVD right now. But our emerging generations will be, and that will help change the distribution of things.

Unfortunately, the other problem is that there is no need to switch right now or in the near future. If most people have an optical drive now and in the near future, why switch to a more expensive distribution medium?

I would bet that the preferred media of choice would switch to the Internet before it ever switches to flash memory. You might see adoptions of networking standards that allow manufacturers to connect system boards to the Internet on a low-level interface to grab data and write it to local storage, bypassing the need for an O/S to do simple downloads.

antalgebra said:

What's the cost of a computer USB port? $1 at a swap meet? and the cost of a blue-ray player? 200 bucks? overall consumer demand will show that people prefer what is least expensive alternative, and if something can run without any additional hardware, people will jump on it.

You're comparing that wrong with wrong values. USB ports are on everything, so the cost for USB is not an issue. And Blu-Ray players are $89 now. By 2010, they'll be as cheap as DVD burners were, around the $30-40 range. But both of these are bundled on PCs, so the cost factor isn't there. As for DVD drives, that Blu-Ray cost factor doesn't apply.

antalgebra said:

aside, who wouldnt want a free 8GB re-writable Microsoft branded USB thumb-drive with their purchase of Office 2010? the cost to the manufacture them is just a couple bucks and declining... and the worth to 'turn a few heads' on the software isle when Ms Grandma is purchasing her accounting tools? priceless.

Ha! You give corporations too much credit. :)

Let me tell you how they see it in a very rough example:

1,000,000 units to manufacturer and sell. DVDs are 0.2 cents each in that quantity and flash media might be $1 at best. That's $1,000,000 of materials for the flash distribtuion, verses $2,000. It wouldn't take a business major to look at that and go with the significantly cheaper option. There would have to be a very real need for companies to switch to something else. And that need isn't here yet, and probably won't be here for a long time.

ok, time for the COMMENTARY

ciphernemo;142124]That is only true when the consumers no longer have the means to get the specific hardware required. You guys talk about computers not coming with optical drives, but that's just not true. Only netbooks, UMPCs, and other crossover mobile/computing devices don't come pre-equipped with an optical drive. ALL DESKTOPS come with one, regardless of where you buy it, except for crossover/mobile desktops like the Eee Box. And pretty much all regular laptops still come with them.

Thats alatta 'exceptions' their buddy. Your pretty much listed off many of the things that are following the market, and proved the point that many machines arent coming with them anymore. Oh yeah, 'except' (theres that word again) 'except' regular ones. I wish I can afford a 'regular' pc. instead I have to build them myself >:

Why do I have to build them myself, you ask? cuz. Im a lowly paid dev at microsoft that can't afford to by these 'regular' ones you speak of. and why again? becuase I'm a sole providor for 3, and I live here in redmond, WA where rent prices have skyrocketed, and frankly I cant afford to live anymore. What's the first thing Im ganna cross off my 'to-do' list to buy? you gottit. my next blu-ray player. thats right, I can't even afford that player that's retailed at $109 thats is no longer supported by LG. (why? becuase supporting it costs them BILLIONS of dollars in shipping, replacements, and lawsuits. good luck to anyone that doesent want to buy it new. How much new? that's right. 189.99 plus tax at fry's electronics. Why fry's? cuz I can return it if it doesent work. Your 89 dollar drive is really 300. becuase even if the drive does come (eventually) it wont work for very long, and your going to get sick of it not putting out to your 7.1 sound setup, and be thinking of what 'antalgebra' told you about what NOT to buy, and then going out and getting a new one for... $189.99?

::inhale::

Because optical media is the defacto, consumers expect to get an optical drive with a new computer. Neither consumer cost nor manufacturer costs will be the ultimate deciding factor in the long run (even though it affects things now). The ultimate breaking point for a change in media will be when consumers become comfortable with the new technology. And your average middle-aged person isn't going to be comfortable with anything other than a CD/DVD right now. But our emerging generations will be, and that will help change the distribution of things.

ok, I have a few issues with these... but mostly stuff I already said. I'd like some opinions on this. Can anyone else shed a point of view here?

Unfortunately, the other problem is that there is no need to switch right now or in the near future. If most people have an optical drive now and in the near future, why switch to a more expensive distribution medium?

you mean why can't we price gouge the consumer more? Let me tell you a little story, (and I KNOW your going to read it, cuz it's a rebuttle to your point of view, and is human nature )

I've met a few devs that were in charge of the Vista era, and i'll tell you what, thats something that most of them NIX from their resume's; cuz frankly nobody wants to see that. The first time I met a dev, was over a beer at a get-together, and I told him that I promised someone I would punch him square in the face if I ever saw him. why? for price gaugoing the american consumer. Vista was designed to be the next generation PC to work on the next generation hardware, for the next generation consumer. It required it's consumer to purchase a $1200 PC, (if it came with xp, then a $150 vista OS), a $300 monitor, a $60+ pair of speakers, and always be connected to $50/mo cable internet to get updates (or else!! ever try to install the SP0 out of box without updates? oh yeah, your in for a treat!) that's not even including the nicities, like Office, games, etc, whats a computer without programs? nothing (almost). and that's STARTUP costs. not including anything after the fact. Where am I going with this? everybody hated it. it sucked. nobody could afford the boxes it was designed to run on, and everyone was quite content with xp, not seeing a single need to move forward except as an excuse to buy another PC. average life of a PC in 1998-2000? 4 years. Average life of a PC in 2004? 8 years. Nobody saw that one coming.

where am I going with this?

a very smart person stood up and asked: "why dont we make our OS geared toward what people ALREADY have?"

...


So let's think about this for a second. 4 years from now. should manufacturers be soley out to put out things so that we have to upgrade our equipment to run it? or... maybe that 1$ USB reader is starting to look pretty good.... after all, grandma still has her Pentium2 from the 90's... with a dusty 1.1 USB port on the back.... why would anyone NOT want to sell her software?

Oh yes, and I'm leaving out the gamer with the $8,000 DELL XPS next-year-model equipped with 4 blu-ray burners, and maybe even a couple.... USB ports?

I would bet that the preferred media of choice would switch to the Internet before it ever switches to flash memory. You might see adoptions of networking standards that allow manufacturers to connect system boards to the Internet on a low-level interface to grab data and write it to local storage, bypassing the need for an O/S to do simple downloads.

BINGO!!

Your 100% right!! (see? Im not all about desagreement, even though it makes for great conversation)

Cloud computing (a WHOLE nother thread, please dont reference this) is the next-next generation, because it's a little far out. especially for mainstream software download. why you ask? becuase of the "Last Mile".

57% of households in the US (irrellevent number I pulled from google) HAVE internet. and as the number looks to have been exponentially growing over the past decade, it's leveling out. cuz Cox, timewarner, Comcast are all companies that are about to plummet in 4 years. They have been the solution to the this so- called 'last mile'. I can get fiber optic internet at 1Gbit/sec for about 10 bucks/month. problem? It's across the street. Solution? wireless data transfer.

Now touching politics, with an 'if' conditional.

If a democrat is elected to office in 2012, we will have a federal funded wireless program that will end up costing taxpayers roughly 20 cents per person for 100% nationwide wireless coverage at a decent speed.

If a Republican get's elected we will see Comcast merge with T-Mobile to create a private wireless network available at $50/mo, and will provide a HUGE boost to the economies and markets that are associated with it.

::inhale::

You're comparing that wrong with wrong values. USB ports are on everything, so the cost for USB is not an issue. And Blu-Ray players are $89 now. By 2010, they'll be as cheap as DVD burners were, around the $30-40 range. But both of these are bundled on PCs, so the cost factor isn't there. As for DVD drives, that Blu-Ray cost factor doesn't apply.

Nope. apples to apples. readers to readers, media to media.

Bluray burner = $199.99 to consumer; roughly $2,000,000 setup for MFG
DVD burner = $29.99; roughly $2,000 setup for MFG
CD burner = swap meet; roghly $2,000 setup for MFG (yup, near same)
USB reader = swap meet/trash can back of grannies puter; roughly $40 bucks for MFG.

Blu Ray media = $5 per disc for consumer; .65c to MFG
DVD Media = .50c per disc for consumer; .05c tp MFG
CD Media = .05c per disc for consumer; .05c to MFG
USB media = $1 per Gig.; .25c per Gig for MFG


So... (yes I'm giving corperations credit here, sorry)

in your below Ex. if I was a corperation that massed produced BDrives (and to prject the next 4 years, I need to build and plan NOW) should I go for... Cd's? no, not enough space. DVD's? no... thats not future thinking.... BD drives... ummm... lets compare:

if I sold 1 unit per year, I pay startup costs (5 mil) i pay media costs (.65c per) Im HELLA in the red for my $40 dollar program

but with USB....
if I sold 1 unit per year, I pay startup cost... hey! im sitting at all the equipment I need!!!!!! my VERY FIRST UNIT, im turning a profit!

(strictly speaking media here, llet's not throw random operating costs, even though they will be thrown at teh 2 million dollar setup above)

and the rest of your rebuttle:

Ha! You give corporations too much credit. :)

Let me tell you how they see it in a very rough example:

1,000,000 units to manufacturer and sell. DVDs are 0.2 cents each in that quantity and flash media might be $1 at best. That's $1,000,000 of materials for the flash distribtuion, verses $2,000. It wouldn't take a business major to look at that and go with the significantly cheaper option. There would have to be a very real need for companies to switch to something else. And that need isn't here yet, and probably won't be here for a long time.

(I promise I wont post this long again, but sometimes it needs to be done; and is all well intended and good natured conversation)