Hurricane Tracking 2012

[Phone Man]

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, BUT two storms have already formed. I will use this one thread to update all the storms this season.


Alberta - Will dissipate over water.


TD-2 will become a Hurricane and make landfall in Mexico Friday or Saturday

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Here is the latest.

65mph sustained winds. The center is about 120mi east of Jacksonville, FL and heading West at 10mph. St Augustine, FL (one of my favorite cities) recently reported sustained winds of 43mph.

ATTACH]213865[/ATTACH]

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Beryl is over Florida and Georgia with 30mph winds but lots of heavy rain. Will be around for a few days.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico may bring lots of rain to the gulf coast.

Its too early to know what it will do but Florida looks like the target.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Sat 2pm update

Getting closer to becoming a tropical storm but wont reach Hurricane winds. Models are split on where it will go but Florida is getting a lot of rain and may get worst.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Sat 4pm Update

Debby has arrived and may go to Texas. Models are still mixed but most have it turning West late Sunday. Predicted winds to reach 60-70mph.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Sun 10am update

NHC is have trouble getting Debby to make up her mine where she is going.

A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

The latest show her visiting New Orleans on Wednesday but that may change.
Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye out.


Next advisory is 4pm CDT (every 6 hrs) but intermittent advisories are also possible.

National Hurricane Center






Jim

 

[whs]

Here you can track your own: Tropical Storm Debby, 2012 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

 

[Phone Man]

Here you can track your own: Tropical Storm Debby, 2012 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

Thanks for that link. The link I had for them wanted me to pay for their service ($375 a year) and didn't show anything.

Jim

 

[whs]

Jim, you are welcome. I use this link since a few years because I have a house north of Tampa. But during the summer I am never there.

 

[Phone Man]

Sun 4pm update

Big change in the projected path. Landfall just East of Panama City on Thursday but that could change as the models still aren't together.
Florida is getting lots of wind and rain as the bulk of the storm is North and East of the center.

I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

Jim

 

[stevieray]

That thing can't make up its mind at all!

 

[Phone Man]

Betty has not moved in the last few hours and is predicted to stay around for a few days with a possible slow drift to the North. Good news is dryer air is coming in from the West and having a disruptive effect on the storm. Most of the bad stuff is along the Florida coast and inland with high surf and winds. Lots of rain 12" and more and a bunch of tornadoes. High pressure ridge is blocking Betty from going inland but the high will move out in a few days allowing slow northward movement of Betty.

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Mon 1pm update

Betty has started a slow move to the NE but maybe a week to go across Florida. Dry air and subsurface cooler water has weaken her.

LOCATION...29.0N 85.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

Jim

 

[Layback Bear]

Is George W. Bush still causing those hurricanes and steering them like he did in New Orleans?

 

[stevieray]

Is George W. Bush still causing those hurricanes and steering them like he did in New Orleans?

Well, if he is I think he must've lost the keys. This one ain't going anywhere...

 

[Phone Man]

Tues 4pm update

Debby is finally on the move and the eye has made landfall. The heavy rains are to the East and North of the eye and should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 24-36 hrs. The strongest winds are to the Southeast and still pushing water into the Florida coast.



Northern Florida has received over 20" of rain and will get 4-5 more before Debby is done.

Rain for last hour.


Rain since Saturday


Jim

 

[bigmck]

Seeing as how you are in charge of storms this year, please keep them east of Louisiana so us folks in Texas and yourself do not get them. I still remember Ike in 2008.

 

[Phone Man]

Last advisory for Debby.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 500 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 ...DEBBY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 78.3W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Remnants of Debby is heading NE into the Atlantic.

The big problem still remains in Florida where some places received 28" of rain and there is wide spread flooding.
My prays go out to all those affected by this event.

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Interesting new tool from NOAA. Put in your town and it shows all Hurricanes for 150 years in your area. The default range is 65mi but you can change that.

Historical Hurricane Tracks | Tools | Digital Coast

Jim