Hurricane Tracking 2012

[Phone Man]

After no Atlantic activity for over a Month we have a bite.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

5PM Aug 2 Update

He is now TS Ernesto with 50mph winds.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

5PM Aug 4 Update

Ernesto heading to the Yucatan and into the Gulf.



Florence in Eastern Atlantic and may die as it turns North/West in 5 days.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Mon 2pm update

As predicted Florence has died off into a sub-tropical low.

Ernesto is heading to Mexico-Belize border and may reach 90mph winds before landfall on Wed.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Ernesto Landfall

At 1000 pm cdt...0300 utc...data from the Belize radar indicate hurricane Ernesto made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near Mahahual Mexico as a category 1 hurricane.

Summary of 1000 pm cdt...0300 utc...information

location...18.7n 87.7w about 0 mi...0 km E of Mahahual Mexico about 40 mi...65 km ENE of Chetumal Mexico
maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h
present movement...w or 270 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
minimum central pressure...980 mb...28.94 inches

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

4pm wed Aug 8

Ernesto:

THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON THURSDAY.

Jim

 

[bigmck]

I really like your Hurricane tracking. Keep it up.

 

[Phone Man]

10pm Thur Aug 9

A new one to watch.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Sat 11am update

TD 7 from my previous post has dissipated into a wave but the NHC will monitor it for any new development.

THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 22 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Also Ernesto has crossed into the Pacific and is reforming but is heading west out to sea and may dissipate in 5 days.

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

11am 8/21 New TD

A new tropical disturbance has formed.





Jim

 

[Phone Man]

2pm 8/22

Large ridge over Florida and gulf controlling Isaac and pushing it Westward. Depending on when this ridge moves on will determine where Isaac will go. Models have it all over Florida early Monday.





TD 10 looks to stay in the Atlantic and not get very strong.




Jim

 

[Phone Man]

5pm 8/23

More western route for Isaac but its still early. Staying in the Gulf off of Florida West coast and heading for Pensacola, FL.
Lots of changes can happen in 5 days.



TS Joyce to stay in Atlantic but may threaten Bermuda.



Jim

 

[whs]

Go west Isaac - I don't want to get my house shaken (north of Tampa).

 

[Phone Man]

Go west Isaac - I don't want to get my house shaken (north of Tampa).

NO,NO,NO!!! I live North of New Orleans. For now it looks to be heading into the Gulf and heading toward the Florida panhandle but it's still too early to tell.

2pm Update



11am update on Joyce.

JOYCE NO LONGER SATISFIES THE CRITERIA FOR BEING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

Jim

 

[whs]

Jim, in New Orleans you are safe I suppose. They fixed everything after Katrina.

 

[Phone Man]

Sun 11am 8/26

Big change in the forecast but NHC models are all over the place so there are not real sure yet. This looks like a tought one to call. Starting making my preps today.

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY 3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

Jim

 

[whs]

That's the picture I get from Stormpulse.

 

[Britton30]

I know you three are in the hurricane zone, anyone else?
Predictions are for 10"+ of rain along coastal areas.

 

[F5ing]

A few computer models:



I'm about 20 to 30 miles west of New Orleans. The weather outlook for us is deteriorating.

 

[Britton30]

I heard one "expert" say Isaac would be one of the most difficult tack to predict in recent history. I assumed that was always the case.