Hurricane Tracking 2012

[fireberd]

Typo. It IS a Cat 1.

 

[F5ing]

Well this is getting a little aggravating. Hit shore once and bounced back out. Picking up more water (good for LPt1's area and maybe elsewhere -- we've been soaked for weeks), but maintaining strength (even picking up a little). About ¼ million without power (we lost it twice). A little windy, but not much rain yet for our area.

8/29 0000 CDT update:



And power just died again...

 

[whs]

This loss of power problem always makes me wonder. In the US, most power lines are above ground and it is no wonder that they get knocked down by strong winds or ice and snow. But next time they put them up again and they are awaiting the next knock down.

In Germany, nobody would accept that. Since after WWII, our power lines went underground. And this is not an easy job because we have no easements like in the US. They have to be put under the streets.

In Florida where I have my house, the easements are 10 to 20 feet wide. It would be easy to bury the power lines (like they have done inside my development). But no, they continue to put up the poles awaiting the next storm. At least it helps full employment.

 

[Bare Foot Kid]

With the world economy on the very edge of a catastrophic collapse, I sure hope our government doesn't decide to start burying the power cables around the country at the estimated trillions (with a t ) it would cost.

 

[whs]

With the world economy on the very edge of a catastrophic collapse, I sure hope our government doesn't decide to start burying the power cables around the country at the estimated trillions (with a t ) it would cost.

It would cost a lot less in the long run. Not to speak about th terrible time millions of people now have without power all the time. My wife's family in NY had to throw away the content of several freezers in the last years. And in the winter when the frozen branches bring the power down, they have no heat. What a life.

 

[LADYPINKtomato1]

When we built our home in 1972, I requested Entergy to put our power lines underground in a conduit , they did ( at that time they were issuing the GOLD Meter to homeowners who were totaly electric, fit their specs ).. we've never had an issue with a power failure caused at our home by trees falling (failure was in a different area from us, effected us as well )

I have friends in Lousiania , MaryBeth Frazier has parents there.. she said they have to install underground power lines where they live , it's the LAW. when the AR. Highway Dept widened our street.. she was out of the country .. or she would have forced them to go underground with the power lines, she knows the powers that best so to speak.. she was still ready to make them come back and re-do what they had finished , even that would have saved monies in the long run of things.
YES.... it is costly to do that..BUT in the long run.. millions are saved by being underground... just recall how many hours, working 7/24 to get people back on line , service men coming in from all over the USA to help out.. during tornadoes, ice storms, hurricanes.. etc.
IT Would be worth every dollar spent over and beyond, with this upgrade to Entergy or any electorical power company.
When the Power is out.. we have nothing but water, old kerosene lamps and a few emergency power lights, candles, otherwise we are in total darkness.. unless it's daylight , I can open the drapes for light. one can lose everything in their freezers / refigerators as well, if the power isn't restored rather quickly.

 

[Solarstarshines]

Big change in the forecast but NHC models are all over the place so there are not real sure yet. This looks like a tought one to call. Starting making my preps today.

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY 3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

View attachment 228408

Jim

Well I understand this is Tough on some of you in the AREA but more of a Blessing for the Mighty Mississippi River which needs water very badly

With this Hurrican Issac I've already read where a lot of the Levies New Orlens etc are starting to spill over im not sure if they dip into Lake Ponchatrain <---------I know how to say it not spell it sorry if it is wrong or going into the Mississippi river

At any rate the river has closed down parts because the Barges are getting stuck which is killing Major distribution maybe Issac came on time who knows but God help us all

 

[LADYPINKtomato1]

Actually rain is needed all over the middle USA north to south borders, almost east to west also.
Really a hot , dry Summer all around.

 

[Solarstarshines]

Actually rain is needed all over the middle USA north to south borders, almost east to west also.
Really a hot , dry Summer all around.

Agreed this has been a very hot summer

I remember a year or two people could tolerate the heat with out turning on the AC but this Summer has been a scorcher since late June

 

[Phone Man]

Lots of news about levies over topping and flooding. This is not the main levies that the Corp of Engineers have rebuilt and improved after Katrina. That entire system is working great and is a vast improvement since Katrina. A local 8ft high levy outside the main system is what was over topped. It is a rural area along the East bank of the Mississippi river and backs up to the Gulf. In the picture, the Blue line is the Federal levy and the Red is the local levy that over topped. Biggest problem in New Orleans is power outage (75% without power) and some localized flooding due to rain.



Jim

 

[Solarstarshines]

Showing some of the force

 

[Phone Man]

Son of Isaac

A low that was part of Isaac has returned to the Gulf of Mexico.
A 'cold' front is dropping down to the Gulf this weekend and may pick it up and send it though North Florida.





Jim

 

[LADYPINKtomato1]

Lots of news about levies over topping and flooding. This is not the main levies that the Corp of Engineers have rebuilt and improved after Katrina. That entire system is working great and is a vast improvement since Katrina. A local 8ft high levy outside the main system is what was over topped. It is a rural area along the East bank of the Mississippi river and backs up to the Gulf. In the picture, the Blue line is the Federal levy and the Red is the local levy that over topped. Biggest problem in New Orleans is power outage (75% without power) and some localized flooding due to rain.

View attachment 228869

Jim

Jim.. There are 2 younger ladies from the bank where I'm employed who are headed off to New Orleans this weekend to help with clean up , I'm hoping they get to do the work they have hoped for , as of yesterday they are not sure were they will be staying, they are preparing to take a tent with them just in case it's needed. It's really a mess down in the redline area, I hope this can soon be drained, so clean up can begin, this will take a long time,as you know so well.. Good luck to your state.

 

[Phone Man]

Its too hot for a tent at night and they will need a cool place to rejuvenate. The 3 main areas that had massive flooding I believe the water has receded and the homeowners are heading back to start their cleanup. Areas on both sides of the Mississippi river South of New Orleans to the Gulf had massive flooding. Also lots of small river flooding on the North side of Lake Pontchartrain and into Mississippi. Lot of small rivers empty into the lake and the wind was pushing the water from the lake back into the rivers and also flooding homes along the North shore of the lake.

Jim

 

[F5ing]

Very commendable of them, I do hope they're also conscious of their own safety as well. It can be a rather risky endeavor.

 

[JimJoe]

Yeah, that Isaac remnant put about 10 inches of rain in Hancock County, western part of Coastal Missisippi in one night. I'm in the east part of Harrison County.

Many roads that were clear, got flooded again.

The food stamp program had to open at the Coast Coliseum in Biloxi to have enough room to give out emergency food stamps. ( Well, a debit card now, not stamps anymore.)

 

[Phone Man]

Most of the storms since Isaac (9 of them) have died in the Atlantic with out any land fall but we have a new one in the Caribbean.

Her name is Sandy and may become a Hurricane real soon.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

10/24 5pm

Here is the latest on Sandy.



Hope it heads out to sea after hitting Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

Jim

 

[Anak]

I hope your right Jim!

I just finished watching the Weather World program, a daily production of the Pennsylvania State University Meteorological Department and according to their extended forecast, Hurricane Sandy is to become a Historical storm for the Northeast United States.

The American Model is a little slow to pick this up, but with the inclusion of the European Model the forecast has it making landfall as a Cat 2, 3 or extra tropical sometime Monday, Tuesday in the area of the lower Northeastern States possibly as far south as Long Island.

I hope this isn't starting a trend, last year on Halloween we had a 5.5" snowfall. Then the warmest winter on record.

To watch the WeatherWorld Video-cast, click on the second pane from left, top row, where you see the world with a green northern jet-stream, when you point on it it will say Extended Forecast.

Updates from AccuWeather:
Weather Bloggers - Weather News - AccuWeather.com

And of course:


Steve

 

[Phone Man]

Here is link to the HPC which tracts the general weather and puts out a 3-7 day forecast and it shows the storm hitting Long Island as a low. Just step through the days.

HPC Day 3 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts

Jim