Microsoft exec admits new reality: Market share no longer 90%, it's 14

[Berkey]

It's me again. Layback Bear 3 brain cells tied behind my back.

I think most of us know Microsoft was a day late and a dollar short getting into the portable market in a meaningful way.
That was a management call.
I remember when IBM thought their would never be a PC market and Mr. Bill thought different. It happens.

Microsoft now has decided to get into the mobile market which I believe they should of been from the beginning.
It wasn't my call.

The part that I have a problem understanding is why does Microsoft think they have to abandon the stationary market. (PC's). I can't get my 3 brain cell wrapped around this idea. Their are large sums of money in both markets. Why not be in both markets in a big fashion. Microsoft has the money and technology to do both.

It reminds me of Windows Media Player.
Leaving it out of newer operating system just because many use 3rd party programs. DA, they use 3rd party programs because Microsoft hasn't updated the capability of WMP since Moses was wearing short pants.
Instead of fixing WMP they just through it away.
I would like to be able to go to a Microsoft site and be able to update WMP so I could use my two BluRay players with my store bought BluRay DVD's.

Instead of fixing things so Microsoft can be big in both portable and PC markets they seem to have decided to just through the PC market away in a somewhat slow fashion.
PC's will never go away if Microsoft has a corporate desire to keep PC's in their market plan.
The computing world is heading in a new direction like it always does. Who in the hell came up with the idea it could only go in one direction at a time. I think this thought pattern came from board rooms. It sure didn't come from consumers. Consumers want both; portable and PC's.

A perfect example is this forum and it's members.
John owns several Computer Help Forums and I would bet a dollar to a one legged tap dancer he also owns portable devices and know how to use both.
As a consumer we are allowed to buy into both markets and we do. I wonder how many members on this forum use both portable and PC's? One does not replace the other but instead (portable/PC) have the capability of working with each other as it should be.

Here is a example where two large companies want in both markets and are joining hands to do so.
IBM, Apple forge enterprise app pact: Watson, meet iPad | ZDNet


My rant for the day.
Layback Bear

I predict tablets (with docking stations) will replace PCs come Skylake CPUs. These little portable devices will be capable of decent gaming, CAD, 3D rendering to make Pixar movies, you name it. Microsoft sees this coming. If I was them, I'd do the same. Desktops/laptops will soon become extinct. Once again, you will have a small tablet with Skylake that can transform into a laptop or desktop if need be... Computers will just get smaller and smaller (the first computer was the size of a room). The size of the mini-tower desktops we have now will seem like dinosaurs to folks a few decades later!

Heck, I predict 50 years from now, tablets will die off too, to be replaced by computers the size of... You'll have a smart watch that can stream contents to a monitor. No need for clunky tablet-sized displays when the watch can also project a hologram with you interacting with the projected image via what we already currently have: 3D touch!

Include a blue tooth keyboard and you effectively have a desktop --- one that you can wear!

Makes sense as technology is always advancing (cds from cassettes and 45's) and I foresee tablets or even smarter smart phones taking over most general usage, but when I watch a movie or play a game, it certainly will not be on a screen the size of a comic book. Not too mention that even if they make the CPUs more powerful, I still would not want to to CAD work or video editing on a screen of that size. If they make tablets any larger than they are today, then to me that's just a thinner laptop so we're back to square one, not too mention most games I play require a mouse, as do CAD/design/editing, so if I have to plug in a mouse and a keyboard to a docking station, I'm pretty sure I have a laptop once again.

Until touch can be effectively configured for all uses, there will always be a need for PCs and laptops, but they will eventually fade away, just not as fast as people think.

 

[A Guy]

I believe the gist is, there is still a large untapped market out there, and MS plans on getting a piece. They have not abandoned the PC market, but they underestimated the response to trying to have a unified GUI across all devices. It may end up being lucky for them that it wasn't what's under the hood, and can be rectified in the next iteration. A Guy

 

[eatup]

It's me again. Layback Bear 3 brain cells tied behind my back.

I think most of us know Microsoft was a day late and a dollar short getting into the portable market in a meaningful way.
That was a management call.
I remember when IBM thought their would never be a PC market and Mr. Bill thought different. It happens.

Microsoft now has decided to get into the mobile market which I believe they should of been from the beginning.
It wasn't my call.

The part that I have a problem understanding is why does Microsoft think they have to abandon the stationary market. (PC's). I can't get my 3 brain cell wrapped around this idea. Their are large sums of money in both markets. Why not be in both markets in a big fashion. Microsoft has the money and technology to do both.

It reminds me of Windows Media Player.
Leaving it out of newer operating system just because many use 3rd party programs. DA, they use 3rd party programs because Microsoft hasn't updated the capability of WMP since Moses was wearing short pants.
Instead of fixing WMP they just through it away.
I would like to be able to go to a Microsoft site and be able to update WMP so I could use my two BluRay players with my store bought BluRay DVD's.

Instead of fixing things so Microsoft can be big in both portable and PC markets they seem to have decided to just through the PC market away in a somewhat slow fashion.
PC's will never go away if Microsoft has a corporate desire to keep PC's in their market plan.
The computing world is heading in a new direction like it always does. Who in the hell came up with the idea it could only go in one direction at a time. I think this thought pattern came from board rooms. It sure didn't come from consumers. Consumers want both; portable and PC's.

A perfect example is this forum and it's members.
John owns several Computer Help Forums and I would bet a dollar to a one legged tap dancer he also owns portable devices and know how to use both.
As a consumer we are allowed to buy into both markets and we do. I wonder how many members on this forum use both portable and PC's? One does not replace the other but instead (portable/PC) have the capability of working with each other as it should be.

Here is a example where two large companies want in both markets and are joining hands to do so.
IBM, Apple forge enterprise app pact: Watson, meet iPad | ZDNet


My rant for the day.
Layback Bear

I predict tablets (with docking stations) will replace PCs come Skylake CPUs. These little portable devices will be capable of decent gaming, CAD, 3D rendering to make Pixar movies, you name it. Microsoft sees this coming. If I was them, I'd do the same. Desktops/laptops will soon become extinct. Once again, you will have a small tablet with Skylake that can transform into a laptop or desktop if need be... Computers will just get smaller and smaller (the first computer was the size of a room). The size of the mini-tower desktops we have now will seem like dinosaurs to folks a few decades later!

Heck, I predict 50 years from now, tablets will die off too, to be replaced by computers the size of... You'll have a smart watch that can stream contents to a monitor. No need for clunky tablet-sized displays when the watch can also project a hologram with you interacting with the projected image via what we already currently have: 3D touch!

Include a blue tooth keyboard and you effectively have a desktop --- one that you can wear!

Makes sense as technology is always advancing (cds from cassettes and 45's) and I foresee tablets or even smarter smart phones taking over most general usage, but when I watch a movie or play a game, it certainly will not be on a screen the size of a comic book. Not too mention that even if they make the CPUs more powerful, I still would not want to to CAD work or video editing on a screen of that size. If they make tablets any larger than they are today, then to me that's just a thinner laptop so we're back to square one, not too mention most games I play require a mouse, as do CAD/design/editing, so if I have to plug in a mouse and a keyboard to a docking station, I'm pretty sure I have a laptop once again.

Until touch can be effectively configured for all uses, there will always be a need for PCs and laptops, but they will eventually fade away, just not as fast as people think.

That's why you dock the tablet to a large screen monitor and keyboard and do your CAD or video editing or watch your digital video download as you would on a desktop. Look, nobody's gonna buy desktops in the future when tablets will be just as powerful when docked, plus undock your tablet and you have a mobile computer in a few seconds! The difference between a laptop and a docked tablet is, the tablet is like the Batmobile --- it can shed the unneeded parts to form a Batcycle!

Microsoft is actually *smarter* than Apple. Apple, you either have a desktop or mobile, but not both.

The future is about a hybrid operating system. People are not going to have their tablet docked 100% of the time, nor use it on the go 100% of the time, which is where hybrid OSes will come in handy!

I can't really say that Windows 8 is a true hybrid OS --- a true hybrid OS will transform seemlessly from desktop mode to mobile mode. For a true hybrid OS, in desktop mode, you won't even get a hint that the mobile mode exists and vice versa! It's like when Clark Kent is Clark Kent, he can't have part of Superman on display. He's either Supes or Clark, but not both at the same time, which is what Windows 8 tries to be!

 

[Layback Bear]

eatup when you hook up all this stuff to a tablet so it works like a PC desktop and does your video editing, CAD, games and other desktop things; how are you going to cool the tablet.
These types of work create a lot of heat that needs to be dissipated. Your going to need thermo heat resistant gloves to use the keyboard.
Hopefully the tablet will BSOD before it lets the smoke out.

 

[King Arthur]

That's why you dock the tablet to a large screen monitor and keyboard and do your CAD or video editing or watch your digital video download as you would on a desktop.

From a business perspective, there are tons of security nightmares from allowing employees to have the power to conveniently disconnect their workstations and take them anywhere (or the vice versa: doing work on personal devices). We already have enough security break-ins from USB sticks and network connectivity; any business that wants to keep their data secured simply will not buy into tablets no matter how powerful they are.

Look, nobody's gonna buy desktops in the future when tablets will be just as powerful when docked, plus undock your tablet and you have a mobile computer in a few seconds! The difference between a laptop and a docked tablet is, the tablet is like the Batmobile --- it can shed the unneeded parts to form a Batcycle!

And a tablet will also have terrible performance compared to desktops due to simply inferior cooling. You make it sound easy, that the problem is easily answered by simply throwing in a more powerful CPU, well it's not that simple.

The primary reason why professionals and enthusiasts like gamers want desktops, besides the large monitor and proper keyboard+mouse, is that desktops and their form factors allow for better cooling and consequently higher performance. You require lots of space for cooling mechanisms and more performance means more heat that needs to be dealt with, one way laptops and tablets have dealt with that heat is by lowering performance (anyone remember netbooks?), which is something that enthusists and professionals who demand a lot from their computers (gaming, CAD, video editting, etc.) simply cannot tolerate.

Let's also not forget that tablets are terrible to service, if not impossible. Desktops (and to a lesser extent some laptops) are easy to service if something inside them breaks down or needs to be upgraded. With tablets, if something inside it dies you're going to replace the entire thing.

 

[Layback Bear]

Tablets are the Bic Pens of the computer world. When the quiet working throw them away and get another one.

 

[Boozad]

Look, nobody's gonna buy desktops in the future when tablets will be just as powerful when docked, plus undock your tablet and you have a mobile computer in a few seconds!

Thanks for speaking for me, just dropping by to let you know you're wrong. I'll keep my big, chunky, nicely cooled, upgradeable desktop thanks. I never have owned a tablet and don't plan on ever owning a tablet.

 

[jimbo45]

Hi there.

I think a lot of the 100% Desktop only people probably don't understand how much MOBILE computing is out there already -- it's very easy if you are a developer stuck in one of those "Rat cage cubicles" in a probably not very comfortable office to develop a load of stuff that you have never actually seen or experienced using out in the field. Games developers too probably need large desktop type computers.

However consider this scenario :

Say I'm an Engineer -- a report comes in that the power supply has failed -- so on my tablet type device I receive the location of the fault (could be a Pylon wire has broken, substation damaged etc), use the GPS function to travel to the fault and then can make an inspection. I can then logon to the remote "Backend ERP system" at the home service centre and input my inspection (video, audio and written). I can also if the repair is easy from the remote site schedule a parts delivery and then do the work and input the hours / other costs. If I can't do the work immediately the data is then scheduled via the backend ERP system.

With a tablet running Windows (Surface Pro 3) this type of application is a doddle - unlike an ipad you have access to all the basic Windows facilities as well for integrating your work with the office. When you get back to base simply plug the device into its docking station and you've got a "conventional PC" connected to the LAN.

There are so many scenarios where computing on the move is a growing part of business - you need sensible devices that tie all this lot together. You aren't going out into the field with a heavy desktop -- even a bog standard laptop can be a bit unwieldly too. Also most laptops don't have things like GPS built in .

I know a load of businesses that instead of equipping people with a laptop AND a tablet, a single surface pro device will do.

Ms has got a good foot in this market -- Apple's tie up with IBM is an admission of that fact and THEY are the one's turning up late for the party not Ms. (IBM's business apps were HORRIBLE anyway -- EXCEL was always better than Lotus 123 which IBM swallowed up, and as for their totally DREADFUL email system based on Lotus Notes (another totally HORRIBLE piece of groupware) the less said the better - I'd go with Ms on this one.

Cheers
jimbo

 

[Boozad]

Hi there.

I think a lot of the 100% Desktop only people probably don't understand how much MOBILE computing is out there already

Or they just don't care. I know I don't.

Are you getting royalties for mentioning the Surface pro or something?

 

[King Arthur]

There are so many scenarios where computing on the move is a growing part of business - you need sensible devices that tie all this lot together. You aren't going out into the field with a heavy desktop -- even a bog standard laptop can be a bit unwieldly too. Also most laptops don't have things like GPS built in .

You need the proper tools for the job you're doing. In your example of an on-the-field engineer that needs to report back to the service center for further information, yes a tablet-type mobile device is great to have.

However, the same does not neccesarily apply to everyone who uses a computer for work and/or in their daily life. I'm sure most of us understand that mobile devices like tablets and smartphones have their place both for work and for entertainment, but it is preposterous to think that desktops are going away when they fulfill needs and requirements that only they can provide.

 

[Jody Thornton]

This looks like scary news. Does Microsoft need to reinvent itself?

Microsoft to lay off 18,000 workers - National | Globalnews.ca

 

[King Arthur]

That's quite a large number, weren't early "guestimates" more around 5000~6000 or thereabouts? Sad day for the folks that will be getting axed. :\

 

[eatup]

eatup when you hook up all this stuff to a tablet so it works like a PC desktop and does your video editing, CAD, games and other desktop things; how are you going to cool the tablet.
These types of work create a lot of heat that needs to be dissipated. Your going to need thermo heat resistant gloves to use the keyboard.
Hopefully the tablet will BSOD before it lets the smoke out.

Nobody reads the news anymore? Broadwell tablet CPU's will already be fanless. When Skylake tablet CPUs get released, they will be almost as good as today's Haswell desktop CPUs + also fanless. I shudder to think how much more powerful tablet hardware will become a decade from now.

Microsoft is trying to position itself now for when tablets will completely replace desktops/laptops...

 

[eatup]

That's why you dock the tablet to a large screen monitor and keyboard and do your CAD or video editing or watch your digital video download as you would on a desktop.

From a business perspective, there are tons of security nightmares from allowing employees to have the power to conveniently disconnect their workstations and take them anywhere (or the vice versa: doing work on personal devices). We already have enough security break-ins from USB sticks and network connectivity; any business that wants to keep their data secured simply will not buy into tablets no matter how powerful they are.

Look, nobody's gonna buy desktops in the future when tablets will be just as powerful when docked, plus undock your tablet and you have a mobile computer in a few seconds! The difference between a laptop and a docked tablet is, the tablet is like the Batmobile --- it can shed the unneeded parts to form a Batcycle!

And a tablet will also have terrible performance compared to desktops due to simply inferior cooling. You make it sound easy, that the problem is easily answered by simply throwing in a more powerful CPU, well it's not that simple.

The primary reason why professionals and enthusiasts like gamers want desktops, besides the large monitor and proper keyboard+mouse, is that desktops and their form factors allow for better cooling and consequently higher performance. You require lots of space for cooling mechanisms and more performance means more heat that needs to be dealt with, one way laptops and tablets have dealt with that heat is by lowering performance (anyone remember netbooks?), which is something that enthusists and professionals who demand a lot from their computers (gaming, CAD, video editting, etc.) simply cannot tolerate.

Let's also not forget that tablets are terrible to service, if not impossible. Desktops (and to a lesser extent some laptops) are easy to service if something inside them breaks down or needs to be upgraded. With tablets, if something inside it dies you're going to replace the entire thing.

Inferior cooling? Theyre already going to release CPUs that won't need a fan on top of it to keep it cool soon... Just wait a few more years, integrated graphics will become so much more powerful and run much cooler that you won't realize notice a benefit in discreet graphics. That'll be the day gamers run Unreal Engine VI on their large screen monitor powered by a tiny tablet!

 

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Well, unlike the carriages of ye olde days the PC will continue to be relevent for many years to come regardless of what OS ends up driving them; you just can't (among other things) play hard-core gaming, perform professional CAD, or do heavy-duty video editting on a tablet or smartphone.

MS proved with Windows 8 that they are more than willing to hang their core user base (consumer and business alike) out to dry in order to foolishly persue a market they have no slightest clue about. While I have some hope for Windows 9, the saying goes that history repeats itself and given that Nadella is someone who puts "the cloud" first I am hardly impressed.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, MS needs to take a step back and look back at its roots and what made it so great. PCs aren't going away, that foolish idea needs to die already. It's foolish of MS that even though they are the undisputed leader of PC operating systems they simply don't care and would rather toy with the idea of becoming the next Apple or Google.

What M$ needs to do is step back and look at what happened to Commodore Business Machines and see how well leaving large portions of its customer base in the dust by abandoning them in favor of pushing newer technology and seeking what it saw as more lucrative markets.

 

[Berkey]

I predict tablets (with docking stations) will replace PCs come Skylake CPUs. These little portable devices will be capable of decent gaming, CAD, 3D rendering to make Pixar movies, you name it. Microsoft sees this coming. If I was them, I'd do the same. Desktops/laptops will soon become extinct. Once again, you will have a small tablet with Skylake that can transform into a laptop or desktop if need be... Computers will just get smaller and smaller (the first computer was the size of a room). The size of the mini-tower desktops we have now will seem like dinosaurs to folks a few decades later!

Heck, I predict 50 years from now, tablets will die off too, to be replaced by computers the size of... You'll have a smart watch that can stream contents to a monitor. No need for clunky tablet-sized displays when the watch can also project a hologram with you interacting with the projected image via what we already currently have: 3D touch!

Include a blue tooth keyboard and you effectively have a desktop --- one that you can wear!

Makes sense as technology is always advancing (cds from cassettes and 45's) and I foresee tablets or even smarter smart phones taking over most general usage, but when I watch a movie or play a game, it certainly will not be on a screen the size of a comic book. Not too mention that even if they make the CPUs more powerful, I still would not want to to CAD work or video editing on a screen of that size. If they make tablets any larger than they are today, then to me that's just a thinner laptop so we're back to square one, not too mention most games I play require a mouse, as do CAD/design/editing, so if I have to plug in a mouse and a keyboard to a docking station, I'm pretty sure I have a laptop once again.

Until touch can be effectively configured for all uses, there will always be a need for PCs and laptops, but they will eventually fade away, just not as fast as people think.

That's why you dock the tablet to a large screen monitor and keyboard and do your CAD or video editing or watch your digital video download as you would on a desktop. Look, nobody's gonna buy desktops in the future when tablets will be just as powerful when docked, plus undock your tablet and you have a mobile computer in a few seconds! The difference between a laptop and a docked tablet is, the tablet is like the Batmobile --- it can shed the unneeded parts to form a Batcycle!

Microsoft is actually *smarter* than Apple. Apple, you either have a desktop or mobile, but not both.

The future is about a hybrid operating system. People are not going to have their tablet docked 100% of the time, nor use it on the go 100% of the time, which is where hybrid OSes will come in handy!

I can't really say that Windows 8 is a true hybrid OS --- a true hybrid OS will transform seemlessly from desktop mode to mobile mode. For a true hybrid OS, in desktop mode, you won't even get a hint that the mobile mode exists and vice versa! It's like when Clark Kent is Clark Kent, he can't have part of Superman on display. He's either Supes or Clark, but not both at the same time, which is what Windows 8 tries to be!

If my tablet has to relay on other equipment like a docking station with a mouse and larger screen, than that means my tablet cannot do the job I need it to do, without more equipment if what you are saying is accurate. So I would still have to buy all the other "desktop" components to make my tablet perform up to the performance of a desktop. If I'm at the house and need to do some CAD work and I couldn't do it unless I went somewhere that had a docking station, that means the tablet is just a tablet until you attached it to other equipment to transform it into a essentially a desktop, so again the tablet can do it's job up to a point, but needs to relay on more equipment to make it "powerful" enough to do a desktops or even a laptops job.

I think JIMBO hit it on the head about the 100% desktop users may not realize how much mobile computing there is, but on the flip side, people who have never really needed to use a desktop for actual desktop jobs (extreme gaming/CAD/video editing) love tablets (which I do for quick use as well) so the tablet can replicate everything they used their big clunky PC used to do. If you just browse the internet, play an occasional game an do work that only requires 2GB of RAM at most, you've never really had to use a desktop in the way people here describe, so they don't understand the argument of "getting away from the PC"

 

[Lady Fitzgerald]

...Inferior cooling? Theyre already going to release CPUs that won't need a fan on top of it to keep it cool soon... Just wait a few more years, integrated graphics will become so much more powerful and run much cooler that you won't realize notice a benefit in discreet graphics. That'll be the day gamers run Unreal Engine VI on their large screen monitor powered by a tiny tablet!

Can you document any of that?

 

[scr]

If a tablet can do everything my desktop does it would be something that I would be interested in. The thing I'm not interested in is small keyboards, mice and screens. If I could hook up my keyboard, mouse and 24" monitor when at home then what's the difference? I'd have a single device that can replace my laptop, desktop, GPS, phone and who knows what else. What really gives me pause is the cost and reliability. You aren't going to able to repair these tiny machines as easily as a desktop and the cost is pretty outrageous for what you get.

Adding the things to make it a desktop does not concern me. I had to add them to my tower to make it work as a desktop otherwise it would have been a door stop with lights.

At my age I'm thinking that there is one more desktop in my future. This computer would go to my wife to replace the 13 year old XP machine. I doubt seriously it will be a mini does it all tablet as they have just not come to a point that a desktop can be replaced by one, maybe there is one that can but I certainly can't afford it.

 

[Fantail]

Tablets are the Bic Pens of the computer world. When the quiet working throw them away and get another one.

I agree although those are some pricey Bic's.

Who remembers this one;

 

[King Arthur]

Inferior cooling? Theyre already going to release CPUs that won't need a fan on top of it to keep it cool soon... Just wait a few more years, integrated graphics will become so much more powerful and run much cooler that you won't realize notice a benefit in discreet graphics. That'll be the day gamers run Unreal Engine VI on their large screen monitor powered by a tiny tablet!

Fanless CPUs have been around for a long time, largely with CPUs like Intel Atom and ARM geared towards power and temperature efficient mobile applications. However, these mobile CPUs have always sacrificed performance and power to achieve the power (as in electrical) and temperature requirements that need to be met.

Until we move to a fundamentally different idea of crunching numbers, CPUs (and GPUs) will produce more heat as they try to go faster. Intel hit this wall with their Pentium 4s back in the day and they finally got around it by introducing multi-core CPUs rather than trying to make a single core extremely powerful.

With regards to integrated graphics, one of the biggest bottlenecks holding them back is slow RAM. Part of why discrete video cards are so much faster than integrated solutions is because they have their own store of RAM (GDDR RAM); integrated graphics need to borrow system RAM (DDR RAM) which is considerably slower than the GDDR RAM used in video cards which in turn slows down the entire graphics subsystem of a computer.

Professional graphics work such as 3D rendering will also absolutely require professional-grade video cards like the Nvidia Quadro series that cost upwards of several grand a card, their kind of specialized workloads are simply too much for integrated graphics solutions (let alone consumer-grade discrete video cards) to handle.