Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

[Night Hawk]

Why Moore's Law, not mobility, is killing the PC

Brad Chacos @BradChacos
Mar 5, 2013 3:00 AM

While rumors of the PC's demise are greatly exaggerated—an industry that moved more than 350 million units in 2012 is not "dead"—computers undoubtedly aren't selling as quickly as they once did. Analysts forecast PC sales to far exceed tablet sales for the foreseeable future, but the growth rate for PC sales has utterly and completely flatlined.

The big question, of course, is why?

A couple of theories inform conventional wisdom. Most pundits blame stagnant PC sales on the likewise stagnant economy, or point toward the ascension of smartphones and tablets. Others argue (fairly persuasively) that the flattening of growth is attributable to the idiosyncrasies of PC sales in developing countries, where computers are a rarely replaced luxury item. A second wave, analysts say, has yet to come after an initial surge in sales in those nations.

Like most economic sectors, the PC market is influenced by myriad factors, and some truth lies in all three of those explanations. After watching my mother-in-law happily troll Facebook and sling emails on her nearly ten-year-old Pentium 4 computer, however, an even more insidious possibility slipped into my head.

Did CPU performance reach a "good enough" level for mainstream users some years back? Are older computers still potent enough to complete an average Joe's everyday tasks, reducing the incentive to upgrade?

"It used to be you had to replace your PC every few years or you were way behind. If you didn't, you couldn't even run the latest software," says Linley Gwennap, the principal analyst at the Linley Group, a research firm that focuses on semiconductors and processors. "Now you can hold onto your PC five, six, seven years with no problem. Yeah, it might be a little slow, but not enough to really show up [in everyday use]."

Old processors are still OK for everyday use

This may come as a shock to performance-pushing PC enthusiasts but the average Joe almost never encodes videos, nor will you catch him fragging fools in Crysis 3. Instead, Average Joe spends most of his time on mundane, often Web-centric tasks: Buying stuff online, sending emails, engaging friends and family on social media, maybe watching the occasional YouTube video—on default resolutions, natch, not high-definition—or playing a few hands of Solitaire.

In other words, hardly the kind of activity that begs for an overclocked, water-cooled, hyper-threaded Core i7 processor. Or even a modern-day Ivy Bridge Core i3 processor, if we're being honest.

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[Berkey]

That was a very good article. I'm currently using an 06-07 dell lattidue with Genuine Intel(R) CPU T2400 @ 1.83GHz, 1 GB Ram and 55GB Hard Drive.

I limit the amount of programs installed and keep it pretty clutter free with externals, but the article holds true. I've never had any real problems with it, maybe a lag or two perhaps the drivers need an update, but I use it every day (not a gamer or audio/video editor) but she runs pretty smoothly and accomplishes my tasks. That being said I am going to be building a custom PC near the end of the year, but I'll hold on to this girl as my travel computer for sure.

 

[ICIT2LOL]

Well for my money Night Hawk the pc sales have flattened out because of the myriads of younger people being smitten with those awful tablets and iPhones. My son is one of them and he has a $3K build sitting at his place gathering dust. Perhaps I am just an old cynic but I find the need for facebook and all that social crap just plain boring and so depersonalised.

Personally I do like getting inside a machine working out the more unorthodox fixes (usually with hardware) I just find it relaxing and keeps this old brain ticking over. As for the development of ever smaller cores well we all know where that is going and frankly where we are at right now is just fine by me. Having said that I am intrigued by the physics of it.

All in all nothing will kill off the PC for me anyway, and lest face it break one of those new gen devices and it's a throw away job eh? and we are up to our ears in waste as it is.

 

[Slartybart]

Great article - thanks for posting it.

The only reason I purchased a new machine last year was becasue my previous machine died. It ran software fine and I could probably upgraded to Win7. Otherwise I was happy with a AMD Athlon 64 X2 TK-57 / 1.9 GHz dual core and 4 GB of memory.

But, it bit the dust - bad MOBO.

I think you should be able to get 7 to 10 years out of a machine. Businesses run on a 3 to 5 year purchase schedule.

 

[King Arthur]

I have two desktops that I use: The i7 machine with Windows 7 that's also in my specs, and a Pentium 4 machine with Windows XP that's been with me since 2008 (the machine itself has been around since 2004!).

The latter P4 machine has been retrofitted with gigabit ethernet, USB2.0, and a GeForce 6200 PCI video card (no AGP slots!) to keep up with modern demands, and it has served very well for my work and lighter/older gaming needs, as well as more basic stuff like serving as an alternative computer to use for IRC, Skype, and surfing the internet. It's also showing absolutely no signs of dying or becoming irrelevant any time soon!

The i7 machine was built in March of last year because my P4 machine was simply hitting its limits as far as decoding h.264/AVC HD video and playing more modern games were concerned, among other needs, and I simply needed a modern cutting-edge workhorse. My i7 machine is now my "main" desktop with my P4 serving as the "sub" desktop, but I find both of them equally useful, reliable, and in-need.

As for the article, it was a very good read indeed! In the quagmire of articles that falsely insist PCs are dying/dead because of smartphones/tablets, this article actually looks scientifically in detail at why PC sales are stagnating compared to earlier times and also why PCs are not dying even though sales may be falling off. Thanks for linking it. (￣▽￣)ノ

P.S. I also have a Pentium III machine from 2001 that's currently sitting quietly waiting for some spare desk space to open up, it's still alive and kicking ass.

 

[Layback Bear]

I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy.

 

[spencer1]

"Buy as much power as you can afford!" That was the standard shopping advice for computers in the 80's, 90's and even into the 00's. The basic idea: "It will give you a hedge against obsolescence." Nowadays, this ain't so much of an issue. I know lots of folks who use 6 - 8 year old PC's without problems. As long as they don't breakdown, they're good to go.

 

[lehnerus2000]

I see several reasons:

• The PC market is saturated in the "1st World"
• Old PCs are powerful enough to run most of the popular software packages
• A lot of new software offers almost no benefits to the end user (e.g. new versions of Office)
• Most people don't have the time or inclination to use computationally demanding software (e.g. 3D animation)
• A lot of people never really needed a PC in the first place

Gamers and other enthusiasts (animation, coding, photography, video, etc.) are the only "standard" consumers who need "heavy firepower".

 

[Night Hawk]

The one constant I found through the years until late '00s was that need to get into a cpu that would push the OS faster. besides that the evergrowing need for more ram was satisfied in the last 4-5yrs. roughly with the drastic increase in capacities suddenly thrust onto the market.

Do you actually need a board that can run 16gb, 24gb, 32gb, or more in everyday use? Most will never have the need!

As for the cpus you once ran a single cpu that slumped next to one that was only 200mhz faster! If you upgraded an old Atholon XP3000 2ghz cpu to one faster like an XP3200 or XP3400 model found on OEM machines you suddenly noticed a leap! Once you got past the 3ghz running a dual core or quad cpu however that same 200mhz jump between models basically amounts to a number only as seen when upgrading from a Phenom II X4 965 3.2ghz to the 975 3.4ghz model.

The real difference seen over the last few years besides moving into a quad from a dual core would be ram having taxed the old 4gb system and running out of resources for things like running multiple VMs simultaneously and CAD. You then need that extra to cover things.

On most custom cases they have always lasted a long time until the last case saw both board and supply with the supply likely taking the board with it need replacements. The present case saw the first board cooked by a faulty supply again seeing both replaced. Other then those two setbacks the only other problem now being is with a replacement drive stuck in the old case when the original Vista to 7 beta host drive had to be pulled due to age and wear. The new drive maybe having some problems since attempts to put a fresh copy of Vista by dvd and flash key failed and XP barely got on.

Besides all that however the primary use for the old case set up for a friend was to replace an old XP build where the board or cpu died from age and the case itself literally fell apart! The friend shops online and plays some basic online games like those by the way seen on FaceBook. Nothing demanding where he would need the 8gb of one brand of memory since he is still running the 32bit Windows.
(He is now considering a look at 7 however where the 64bit could be advised.)

For the present 7 case here however the extra was planned out ahead of time to cover the things the last build wasn't able to as well as allowing for other things to come that might need that extra. At the same time the daily tasks are not that demanding except for those times when something new is being tried out. Something that taxes system resources that is.

 

[ICIT2LOL]

I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy.

Yep so right about the throw away comment and I for one think it is disgusting how these cheap and cheerful devices are in are made from what I consider slave labour not only in the manufacturing sites but also those site where the raw materials come from something that most of the apathetic public users are not really concerned about or I would hazard a guess at even caring if they knew.
But I guess this goes on with a lot of the well known brands of merchandise:sarc:

 

[indianacarnie]

I agree 100% with you ICit2lol ! Its not just electronics stuff either. While in Japan for CNC Lathe training I met some really nice Thai's working for the same Japanese company I was. There for training on the same machines, doing the same things I was. After a coffee break,where I was talking to a couple of the Thai's, my Japanese "handler" for want of a better word came over to me smiling big as a Cheshire Cat........... "we pay them $2.00 a day he told me". I was getting $16.50/hr plus.

 

[FuturDreamz]

As hard as I try, I just cannot justify replacing my seven-year-old desktop (see specs) with a new one that costs $700 or more just to play my games better

 

[Night Hawk]

You won't always "have to soent nore then needed" in order to get into a new working machine. I spent a little over $300 for the micro atx case(NZXT Vulcan) with carrying handle, a 3.2ghz dual core Phenom II model, 4gb of memory, a reasonable but not high end card(MSI Radeon R6450 low profiles), and tossed in a 500gb drive for the 7 Pro install.

With a usb WiFi adapter eliminating the need for a PCI nic card and wanting it portable to a degree all I would need now would be a separate sound card rather then onboard for some gaming. I simply added in case and other parts when going to toss a lower cost board into the old Vista build and ended ordering the what could have been spare board for the Ultimate case ending up there instead while the extras went into the newer second case.

It depends on what you are looking for as to how to shop for parts and save at the same time on not overspending when it won't be necessary! You can still run just about any game on a lower end card without too much problem at high settings. Most of the hype in reviews is mainly to sell the higher end stuff with the steeper price tags on them.

 

[ICIT2LOL]

I agree 100% with you ICit2lol ! Its not just electronics stuff either. While in Japan for CNC Lathe training I met some really nice Thai's working for the same Japanese company I was. There for training on the same machines, doing the same things I was. After a coffee break,where I was talking to a couple of the Thai's, my Japanese "handler" for want of a better word came over to me smiling big as a Cheshire Cat........... "we pay them $2.00 a day he told me". I was getting $16.50/hr plus.

Yep I was specifically referring to Tantalum which a lot of the modern caps are made from and which is got from a mineral called Coltan and in West Africa the native tribes are virtual slaves to the mining companies / governments that watch over them at gun point while that hunt this stiff out - Coltan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tantalum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Most worrying part of this is that in Australia there large deposits of this mineral but because of the slave labour those giant electronics companies buy it from the West African sources
I won't say what I feel about tablets and iPhones because I will only get a barrage of abuse.

 

[Gary]

Man, this is terrible. I would not think that in this day and age such brutality would exist.

 

[jimbo45]

As hard as I try, I just cannot justify replacing my seven-year-old desktop (see specs) with a new one that costs $700 or more just to play my games better

Hi there
Putting an SSD in it and install OS on it might make a HUGE difference - often just doing that makes an OLD computer perform better than a new one with traditional HDD's.

Cheers
jimbo

 

[King Arthur]

I call it the Bic Method. Just like Bic lighters, pens, razors ect.
When it quiets working just throw it away and get another one. Tablets will get cheep enough to do that with out even a second though. Their might even be trade in sales promotions for broken tablets and the like.
It's a new market that companies want to be a big part of. Do remember that this market does not require quality. Make the tablet last a little longer than the warranty of 1 year and then offer a trade in value of the broken tablet towards a new tablet. Perpetual sales until the next new throw away toy comes along. New throw away products will come out when China makes enough counterfeits of existing toys to take the sales and profits out of them. Then a new toy comes out in two new colors, black and silver and the whole process starts all over. I think they call this the new Global Economy.

Yep so right about the throw away comment and I for one think it is disgusting how these cheap and cheerful devices are in are made from what I consider slave labour not only in the manufacturing sites but also those site where the raw materials come from something that most of the apathetic public users are not really concerned about or I would hazard a guess at even caring if they knew.
But I guess this goes on with a lot of the well known brands of merchandise:sarc:

While the subject of what goes on in manufacturing iPhones and Samsung Galaxies and whatnot is a very important one and merits a whole topic of its own, I'm more readily concerned about the sheer amount of electronic and in-some-cases toxic wastes that such a "trash it after 1 year" mentality will bring about.

 

[strollin]

I often come across people that tell me their tablet does everything they used to do on their desktop/laptop so they rarely use them anymore. This is because the "average" smo out there only uses a computer to access email, surf the web and use Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc...

More and more software is becoming web centric. "Cloud" computing makes data as well as applications accessible from tablets, phones and lightweight machines like the Chromebook easily and often while mobile.

I think the #1 reason for having a desktop today is for playing the latest games. Many people don't play the games so don't need all that power, they'd rather just have a fast internet connection.

The typical member of this forum does not match the profile of the "average" computer user so while our community considers it unthinkable to NOT own a desktop or laptop to most others out there it doesn't matter and they would just as soon use a tablet.

 

[Night Hawk]

Man, this is terrible. I would not think that in this day and age such brutality would exist.

Some places would baffle those who haven't traveled the globe at all! Some places still live in 13th century conditions with a similar mind set. But all that would be a totally different topic entirely since it gets into the various cultures, traditions, politics in various regions of the globe. That doesn't even include the mountain of plastic waste covering a good portion of the ocean floor either from modern manufacturing and no place to put the discarded materials used in all those new conveniences either.

The real subject here however is how the progressions as far as actual performance leaps in hardwares has greatly diminished in recent years compared to what you would have seen a decade even 5-6yrs. ago as far as leaps and bounds when a new line of cpus or graphic cards came out. The processing power as well as higher end graphics support even on lower end video cards will presently easily handle game titles that have been out for years as well as just about any desktop app you can think of.

Memory capacities have expanded well beyond what it would take for those more demanding softwares like CAD and other engineering, animation wares which would have taxed an old pc beyond capacities or needed the most high end build at one time is now just about any new desktop model with only a little extra tossed in if needed. Back in 2001 I would run a few older Legacy to XP titles with only a pair of 128mb simms or even 512-768mb and now run the same with 16gb of memory on the present build. That alone is well beyond what we would have been imagined in that amount of time.

As far the social networks and simple web browsing any smart phone can get you around. But for actual enjoyment of watching media full screen or that 1st person shooter nothing will take the place of a good 20" lcd or larger screen to look at. For other resource intensive programs like those already hinted on you still would need the desktop platform however. Some things you will never be able to do on any tablet or hand held for the obvious reasons why many can simply slide by with a portable something or other.

 

[ICIT2LOL]

Yes well as for the waste I saw a documentary just recently where a Chinese woman squatted on the ground in some squalid shed next to a pile of chipped plastic and to discriminate between what sort of plastic it was and place it into one of three bins she had to hold a cigarette lighter against the chip of plastic and then tell what sort it was by inhaling the fumes:shock:

Some of this same documentary also showed the removal of gold and other heavy metals in Japan that were under slightly better conditions and it surprised me that it is a profitable thing to do for the gold alone!

I don't think we know the half of what goes on and what is sad a lot of us wouldn't care even if we did