In terms of cooling, if you decide to look into the 570s, I would stay away from the 570 HD. Performance-wise they are the same but ...
The reference design 570 have a Vapor Cooling chamber, and exhaust all the hot air out back of the case. And they do seem to run quite cool.
The HD doesnt use a Vapor Chamber, and exhast some air out the back, and some back into the case. So very good airflow will be important for this one.
Also, I bought the Backplate and High Flow bracket for mine. Only to find out EVGA started shipping the cards with the HAF bracket already on them.
In regards to heat:
Mine idles at 38-40C depending on ambient.
I use a custom fan profile for my card when gaming.
Starting at 40% and ramping up to 50% @ 60C and increasing up to 60% at 72C.
Large majority of games the card runs at 60C under load.
Games like Borderlands, Bioshock, Fallout, etc They just dont MAX the GPU use.
For the really GPU intesive ones, it hits 70C.
Without the fan profile, the higher end temps under heavy stress can reach around 76C
So Ive really only increased the fan speeds slightly, for about a 5C drop at loads.
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I dont have many DX11 games either.
Mertro 2033 benchmark showed a avg of 55FPS, on High settings (Tesselation/Adv Phys-X and x16AF)
Sadly I think thats all this game is good for is a benchmark

I just didnt get into it that much.
Also, keep in mind, Civ V is very CPU intensive.
While a good GPU is important, it also get a large performance boost from a Quad Core CPU.
Im able to run it wuith all settings on high and it plays quite smoothly. (And thats with a aging Q9650)
Empire Total War runs beatifully too. Even with lots of armies on the field.
All High Settings (Textures and Shadows at Ultra) x4AA x16AF.
Witcher 2 is probably my most GPU intesive game ATM. Mostly due to the fact it needs some optimizations still but ...
I am still able to use highest settings possible (except for turning OFF Ubersampling) and it runs smoothly.
I think youll be fiine with a single GPU, regardless which one you choose.
The 6950 / 570 / 6970 are all very good performing cards.
--CPU
Because of new technology. SandyBridge is a bit more effecient, and faster clock for clock.
Kinda of like the difference between a Socket 775 Yorkfield Quad VS a Core i7.