2009: The Year of Windows 7?

[NormCameron]

"Consumers have good reason to be excited about the next OS -- and Microsoft has good reason to ship it sooner rather than later.

December 2008 • by Mary Jo Foley

If you believe the leaked schedules, whispered timelines and mounting anecdotal and factual evidence, 2009 should be the year of Windows 7.

Yes, I realize that Microsoft officials are still citing their "three years after Windows Vista went generally available" ship date as the target for Windows 7. But any Windows watcher worth his or her salt knows that "early 2010" is a more likely timeframe for Redmond to ship the product.

-- advertisement --

Microsoft has every incentive to get Windows 7 to market sooner rather than later. Among them:

* Vista isn't getting the corporate (or consumer) buy-in Microsoft hoped for. Many businesses are planning to skip Vista and go straight from Windows XP to Windows 7.
* No matter how many marketing campaigns Microsoft launches to offset the negative public perceptions of Vista, nothing seems to undo the damage that's been done.
* First public impressions of Windows 7 from those playing with the pre-beta bits are quite positive. This, despite the fact that the Professional Developers Conference (PDC) build of Windows 7 is missing the flashy "Superbar" bits Microsoft showed off at the conference in late October.
* In spite of Microsoft's insistence to the contrary, Windows 7 is not a major release. It's a lot of fit-and-finish improvements that will make Windows 7 the product that Vista should have been. That said, the ability of Windows 7 to support up to 256 processors is impressive.
* As Microsoft experienced with Vista, a January launch of a new OS is pointless. It needs to launch in the second or third quarter so it hits the back-to-school and holiday PC market.

From what sources tell me, Microsoft intends to deliver a public, feature-complete beta 1 of Windows 7 by the end of this month. I hear there's no planned beta 2 of Windows 7. The product is slated to go from beta 1 to Release Candidate to released to manufacturing (RTM). Increasingly, it appears Microsoft has a real chance to RTM Windows 7 by mid-2009.

With all this momentum, why am I questioning whether 2009 will be the year of Windows 7? There are still a couple of potential hurdles that could delay this fast-moving train. There's the chance a showstopper bug could rear its ugly head in the eleventh hour of testing, but there are a couple of bigger worries:

* Google. Google is, no doubt, lining up its antitrust arguments about Windows 7 right now. Possible problem areas include integrated desktop search and more tightly integrated Windows Live services. Windows 7 is designed to deliver the most up-to-date mail, photo, calendar and other service bits via Windows Live. Microsoft is working to win over PC makers so they'll preload the Windows Live Wave 3 bits on new PCs. Do you think Google-especially an angry Google, if its ad deal with Yahoo! is blown up by the 'Softies-is going to take this lying down? Get ready for more European Union antitrust suits, as well.
* PC makers. One reason Microsoft didn't launch Vista at the end of 2006-even though it was RTM in early November-was because some of the company's OEM partners weren't ready for it. Some of its biggest PC-maker allies couldn't get the final bits from RTM to pre-load on new machines in less than two months, so Microsoft delayed its Vista launch until late January 2007. Depending on when Microsoft RTMs Windows 7, a similar situation could arise. If Microsoft RTMs Windows 7 too close to back-to-school time or the holiday preload-cutoff dates, the company might have to "pull a Vista" and push back its Windows 7 product launch."

Redmond | Column: 2009: The Year of Windows 7?

What do you think? Is this solid reasoning, or more hot air?

 

[davehc]

Somtimes Mary gets it right, but on average her news must be read with caution. I do agree though, that on Microsoft's unchanged record over the years, 2010 is a more likely release date.
I would really like to know what those "sources" are she refers constantly too, and the "spokesman" similarly. On her invitation in her blog, I did once email her asking that question. She deigned not too reply. Probably too busy or considered me too intrusive!
LOL - I sometimes have to do a mental switch to deal with differences in global times, but I do wonder from where she wrote that piece. It won't be December here for a couple of days yet.

 

[Barman58]

Hi all,

To answer you question Norm ...

Yes, I realize that Microsoft officials are still citing their "three years after Windows Vista went generally available" ship date as the target for Windows 7. But any Windows watcher worth his or her salt knows that "early 2010" is a more likely timeframe for Redmond to ship the product.

WTF I'm sorry but any way I calculate it Early 2010 is 3 years after 2007 so this looks like conflict for the sake of filling a blog.

and more tightly integrated Windows Live services. Windows 7 is designed to deliver the most up-to-date mail, photo, calendar and other service bits via Windows Live.

So optional downloads are more tightly integrated than pre-installed apps (a la Vista) - Sorry that does not scan to me

I think as Dave says "read with caution" But Norm,thanks for posting it I like to do my research and read all points in a discussion, a trick that a lot of Bloggers could do with trying.

OK rant over - More coffee required

 

[NormCameron]

Hi all,

To answer you question Norm ...



WTF I'm sorry but any way I calculate it Early 2010 is 3 years after 2007 so this looks like conflict for the sake of filling a blog.



So optional downloads are more tightly integrated than pre-installed apps (a la Vista) - Sorry that does not scan to me

I think as Dave says "read with caution" But Norm,thanks for posting it I like to do my research and read all points in a discussion, a trick that a lot of Bloggers could do with trying.

OK rant over - More coffee required

That was what I thought.

 

[Bare Foot Kid]

Yes, I realize that Microsoft officials are still citing their "three years after Windows Vista went generally available" ship date as the target for Windows 7. But any Windows watcher worth his or her salt knows that "early 2010" is a more likely timeframe for Redmond to ship the product.

If they stick with this time frame; they'll be losing an incredbile amount of momentum Windows 7 has achieved already.

Microsoft intends to deliver a public, feature-complete beta 1 of Windows 7 by the end of this month. I hear there's no planned beta 2 of Windows 7. The product is slated to go from beta 1 to Release Candidate to released to manufacturing (RTM). Increasingly, it appears Microsoft has a real chance to RTM Windows 7 by mid-2009.

As stable as this build seems to be; this would seem to be the better option. But as she said; a last minute bug would have disastrous results on the already damaged image of MS and its products. I know I'm ready for Windows 7, but I don't want a product that's not as stable as possible from the start. I hope that the need to get 7 to market doesn't cloud the decision making process.


Later :shock: Ted

 

[garysgold]

I'm sure MS would like to get 7 out as soon a possible, but it is much more important that they don't have all the problems that the release of Vista created. This may have been unavoidable with Vista, but if it happens with 7....

Gary

 

[Ex_Brit]

I hope they don't dumb it own just so that they can release it earlier. There were quite a few features that were taken out of Vista prior to its release.

 

[jackdelamare]

I would like to see 7 out earlier, but I think there could be issues like stated above with the computer manufacturers not being able to run it completely. Not that the OS will be a problem, but these companies may not have touch screens on their computers therefore meaning one of the main parts of Windows 7 would be left out when installed on a normal computer. I know myself that I'm going to buy a brand new touch PC a little bit after Windows 7 is release.

 

[smarteyeball]

Personally, I would prefer to wait and have that kick A** OS that was promised years ago, rather than some "We couldn't implement that feature in time. Maybe it appear in a SP or maybe it won't" release.

 

[Ex_Brit]

My sentiments exactly.

 

[jackdelamare]

I'm lost, what kick a** feature?

 

[NormCameron]

I'm lost, what kick a** feature?

Metaphorically speaking

 

[jackdelamare]

Metaphorically speaking

Ah ok. Well I love Vista. But I'm hoping Windows 7 will be great, and win over those users who just believe what they read, without using it themselves.