A look ahead: 2012 is Microsoft's turning point

From my perspective (and I suspect some other people's) they are wasting time (and presumably money) on this Metro UI.

They could be using that time (and money) fixing up various glitches, performance lags and security vulnerabilities that exist in Windows 7 (i.e. so they don't exist in Windows 8).
From the MS perspective that is not so. The mobile market is a huge business opportunity that grows 10 times faster than the PC market. And up to now, MS is not really present in this market because they lack ARM support that 99% of the mobile devices require.

With Windows8, they will change the whole landscape. Apart from new users, they will chew a big portion of today's Android and Apple market. Plus, the ARM processors will migrate into the Netbook and laptop market which again is an excellent opportunity.

Qualcom alone makes 1 million ARM chips every day - and that is not counting Nvidea and the other manufacturers. Why would MS stand on the side and let the others take that share.

This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.
 

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I don't like the cloud and I don't like Windows 8. That's just it for me, good old Windows 7 and good reliable hard drives.
 

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I don't like the cloud and I don't like Windows 8. That's just it for me, good old Windows 7 and good reliable hard drives.
your forced to be on the cloud on windows 8? Never used win 8, this is why i ask. If you have to use the cloud then that just sucks.
 

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This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.

So they are willing to risk alienating 1 billion existing users for 140 million new ones?
P*** off enough of your user base and they might just switch to Mac or (more likely) Linux.

That's not to say that MS shouldn't try to suck money out of the "fashionistas" (they obviously have "plenty to burn").

I'm not going to type Word docs, or create Excel spreadsheets, on a mobile phone.
Business productivity will drop to basically zero, when they replace desktops with mobile phones.

your forced to be on the cloud on windows 8? Never used win 8, this is why i ask. If you have to use the cloud then that just sucks.

No.
Windows 8 still installs locally.

However it will probably only be a matter of time, before they try to release a "Cloud" only OS.
Hopefully the SOPA debacle will put a stop to it.
 
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This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.

So they are willing to risk alienating 1 billion existing users for 140 million new ones?

P*** off enough of your user base and they might just switch to Mac or (more likely) Linux.

I'm not going to type Word docs, or create Excel spreadsheets, on a mobile phone.

Business productivity will drop to basically zero, when they replace desktops with mobile phones.
That will be a 140 million new ones (or more) each year. And there is absolutely no reason that one cannot use Win8 on PCs. Yes it is a bit different, but that is the exciting part.

And as far as Mac is concerned, that will be only for the rich people and Linux for the extra smart. And there are not too many around of either category.
 

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Exciting = Awful?

That will be a 140 million new ones (or more) each year.

That chart was labelled cumulative.
It also chooses a time span which suits the argument that mobile devices are the "bee's knees".
What would it look like if the time scale was 30 years?

How long before the market is saturated (just like mobile phones)?

Not everyone can afford to "waste" $500 on a glorified e-book reader.
If I (personally) had $500 lying around, I'd use it to improve my PC (graphics card and RAM) and external backup storage.

And there is absolutely no reason that one cannot use Win8 on PCs. Yes it is a bit different, but that is the exciting part.

True, but it is awful (if you don't use the Registry hack).
I constantly had to switch to the Metro screen (or choose to populate my desktop with icons) to get anything done.

Thus I've used the Registry hack.
As a result, I have the productive "Dinosaur" Windows Desktop and "Start Menu" back. :party:

And as far as Mac is concerned, that will be only for the rich people and Linux for the extra smart. And there are not too many around of either category.

Apple might seize the opportunity to gain market share by lowering its prices (i.e. subsidizing part of the cost, by using some of the massive iDevice profits).

Despite its problems, Linux is getting easier to use.
If you only do simple things (e.g. start Firefox, send email or create simple docs) it is already adequate (i.e. you don't need to know any Terminal commands).

If Red Hat (for example) sensed an opportunity to expand, they might actually hire some more people to work on their GUIs.
 
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It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK (but not with that extra slow FF - use Chromium). I happen to like the Terminal commands. But I have been a professional programmer all my working life.
 

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It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK (but not with that extra slow FF - use Chromium). I happen to like the Terminal commands. But I have been a professional programmer all my working life.

I have no speed problems with FF9 in Ubuntu 10.04 (of course I had to install it the hard way).

As you can probably guess, I hate having to constantly swap workspace/environments:

  • GUI to Terminal and back.
  • Metro to Desktop and back.
If I wanted to use the CLI constantly, I would never have left DOS. :D
 

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It is not going to happen. Macs will remain an elite club and Linux is too confusing for most people. Granted, if you do only very simple things, it is OK ...
There have been rumors that OSX and IOS will most likely merge, but it doesnt stop there ! There have also been rumors that Imacs will get capacitive touch!
Then again these are just rumors.
As for linux I use it every once in a while for compiling, scripting, and general server use. My preferred Distros have always been Ubuntu and CentOS. I can say that being a Linux "Power User" has a steep learning curve, due to the fact that the terminal takes alot to master, This in itself will prevent many users from switching to linux in the first place, also linux has very little standards set in place, just look at all the different distributions.

As for Windows 8, I see potential, its just how MS decides to apply all of that potential that matters!
 

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From my perspective (and I suspect some other people's) they are wasting time (and presumably money) on this Metro UI.

They could be using that time (and money) fixing up various glitches, performance lags and security vulnerabilities that exist in Windows 7 (i.e. so they don't exist in Windows 8).
From the MS perspective that is not so. The mobile market is a huge business opportunity that grows 10 times faster than the PC market. And up to now, MS is not really present in this market because they lack ARM support that 99% of the mobile devices require.

With Windows8, they will change the whole landscape. Apart from new users, they will chew a big portion of today's Android and Apple market. Plus, the ARM processors will migrate into the Netbook and laptop market which again is an excellent opportunity.

Qualcom alone makes 1 million ARM chips every day - and that is not counting Nvidea and the other manufacturers. Why would MS stand on the side and let the others take that share.

This is a graph that shows the growth of mobile devices in the first 4 years (Android and Apple only) versus the growth of the PC market in the first 9 years (Windows and Mac). And don't confuse inventory with growth. It is in the growth where the money is being made.


Hi there
Why is it so many companies make the SAME mistake over and over again. MS I think will avoid this particular issue however.

In the beginning the growth market is HUGE -- so they go all out and spend shed loads of money grossly expanding the business -- then surprise surprise -- the market has matured and growth drops from 85% to a more realistic 3 or 4% -- but this isn't making up for the initial HUGE investment incurred -- investors panic, stock falls and company possibly even goes out of business.

These companies never think about what do we do AFTER a market matures.

It's the same in retail -- in shopping malls and towns all over the place there were literally HUGE numbers of Mobile Phone outlets --- now every man and his dog has at least one and possibly 2 mobiles half these outlets are shutting down -- the replacement and upgrade market isn't a patch on the initial flurry when these devices were largely new and unknown.

Even some of the brand names sound rather pedantic nowadays --- such as "The Car Phone warehouse"--what's so special about a phone in a car -- these days it actually has a NEGATIVE connotation -- using mobiles in Cars even Hands free is in some countries and backed up by most University research programs considered to be at least as dangerous as driving TWO times over the standard European legal drink drive limit (2 times over 50 mg).

There's always a rush to hit to hit the market first, flood it to become an almost monopoly and then wonder why a year or two down the road the company goes bust because it's not making money anymore.

I LIKE innovation etc but some of our modern business models are MUCH TOO SHORT TERM. It's good to see MS looking for new revenue streams since windows and MS office products good though they are can't produce mega cash indefinitely.

You only have to look at the once mighty Kodak relying on the wrong product (printers now --total disaster to base any sort offuture on these as more and more documents - even LEGAL stuff is becoming electronic and Canon and Epson do printers much better anyway than Kodak.

Even IBM had to switch from making hardware "Big Blue" to providing services to continue as a top notch company.

Other companies beginning to get into trouble are : HMV (people are moving away from CD/DVD's and the market for Vinyl while there and is STABLE believe it or not) is specialized and very small,

WH SMITH -- large bookseller / stationer / etc etc. Nobody actually knows what this chain really stands for any more -- it's largely kept alive by its commercial news division (WH SMITH News) - media distribution / advertising contracts etc based in Swindon UK -- but I'll bet 99% of customers going into a WH Smith branch in the UK will never have heard of it.

Comet - part of Kingfisher -- sells basically White goods and lower end PC's -- this end of the market is hugely tapped by the Internet - people don't need expensive retail space as these Internet stores only have to ship when a customer orders. This end of the market too is now saturated and only supplying basically people who are upgrading their old machines / computers.

cheers
jimbo
 

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Jimbo, this is a very realistic analysis of the situation in many industries. But for the mobile market we are not yet at the mature point - I think. Take me, I have no mobile phone and no tablet. But I am waiting for a nice 7" tablet with Windows to come out and I will certainly buy. And look how this shoestring OS called Android sold. They are making billions even with such a junk product. So I am pretty confident that MS will do well in this market. At least they go halfway professionally about developing their products.
 

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Hi there
I'm sure an MS OS in a phone / tablet will be streets ahead of android - and will be able to control the installation of apps much better than the literally zillions of junk apps on android.

I detest however the whole idea of an "App store".

I should be able to install software on a Windows phone just like installing software on a workstation from ANY legitimate source. The OS will hopefully have enough safeguards in it to stop a lot of rogue applications from installing just like Windows does now (on the whole).

Cheers
jimbo
 

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There are a few good points made by Jimbo45 in message #70.
 

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Jimbo, this is a very realistic analysis of the situation in many industries. But for the mobile market we are not yet at the mature point - I think. Take me, I have no mobile phone and no tablet. But I am waiting for a nice 7" tablet with Windows to come out and I will certainly buy. And look how this shoestring OS called Android sold. They are making billions even with such a junk product. So I am pretty confident that MS will do well in this market. At least they go halfway professionally about developing their products.
That is the truest statement ever....
 

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It looks pretty.
Hi there
I'm sure an MS OS in a phone / tablet will be streets ahead of android - and will be able to control the installation of apps much better than the literally zillions of junk apps on android.

I detest however the whole idea of an "App store".

I should be able to install software on a Windows phone just like installing software on a workstation from ANY legitimate source. The OS will hopefully have enough safeguards in it to stop a lot of rogue applications from installing just like Windows does now (on the whole).

Cheers
jimbo
I think if the Windows Store in Windows 8 added desktop programs to the mix, it would make software selection more consolidated.
 

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It looks pretty.
I have to admit, based on my brief play sessions with the Win8 Developer Preview in a virtual machine and what I've seen and read online, I just don't have the same level of disdain toward the whole Metro look and/or philosophy that a lot of other people seem to have. Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe that will change, but as far as I'm concerned it's just a little bit too early to panic.
 

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I think some of the opinions of the Start Screen, (metro design is something else according to Microsoft) are misinformed. They're based of old Youtube videos showing off the first iterations of the Start Screen. They're based off peoples' lack of exploration of something unfamiliar. They're based off old ideas of what a desktop OS should be. They're based of ideas that the start menu doesn't have any present issues of hordes of folders and subfolders. They're based of the notion that multitasking only occurs on a desktop and anything that takes away from it is inferior.

Come on, really? Microsoft put their entire brand of Windows on the line to innovate for these modern times. We're literally using an operating system that is still based of vista. It took a good five, six years before we got any actual change. If Microsoft's Windows division decided to make another OS with a start menu, we'd be testing a tweaked copy of Windows 7. Remember how Windows 7 was once called vista 2.0? That's what happens when a product design stagnates. I mean, some people are calling Windows 8 dumbed down. Consider the fact that those people don't like change or anything radical because they might need to learn how to do something they've done for years differently. I think those people might really be the dumbed down ones. If they need to have an OS act EXACTLY as the previous, what does that say about them?

Windows 8 is literally the grandest change in the Windows brand and even rivals 95 in terms of such. It's a start of something new, the start of the future. It is the turning point of Microsoft as a company. I find it troubling to hear about such ridiculous things about Windows 8 that really have no substance.

My two cents....:huh:
 

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Hi there
W8 will be a difficult one -- you've got two different often contradictory working environments.

A Smart Mobile phone needs to run several applications when required, have very fast response times and try and minimize power consumption --actually a horrendous task as the owners of modern smart phones will testify - run several apps continuously and the battery will barely last a day.

A Workstation OS doesn't have the same power constraints and speed of launching apps isn't "mission critical".

In putting together an OS that tries to cover BOTH sets of the spectrum quite decently from what I've seen in the preview MS has done a first rate job.

I have no doubt that this WILL be a wiiner -- I'd ditch ANDROID at a stroke if I could find a decent smart phone with Windows in it (a phone equivalent to the latest SAMSUNG's, HTC's or Iphones. Nokia are IMO in the Dinosaur age of new phones -- they don't even LOOK sexy never mind about actually using them.

Cheers
jimbo
 

My Computer My Computer

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Linux CENTOS 7 / various Windows OS'es and se...Intel i7 Intel i58GB, 16GBOn Motherboard
Computer type
PC/Desktop
Computer Manufacturer/Model Number
Custom built, several laptops HP/ASUS
OS
Linux CENTOS 7 / various Windows OS'es and servers
CPU
Intel i7 Intel i5
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8GB, 16GB
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On Motherboard
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Realtek HD audio
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Apple Cinema display, Samsung LCD
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4 X 1TB SATA
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Toshiba wireless laser
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> 20MB up
Perhaps they should change the names of all of the programs and functions too.
"Control Panel" is so 20th Century.

Maybe they should change:
"Windows Update" to "Your Bodyguard".
"Word" to "Scrivener".
 

My Computer My Computer

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W7 Ultimate SP1, LM19.2 MATE, W10 Home 1703, ...AMD Phenom II x6 1100T, 3.3 GHz12GB DDR3 1333 G-Skill (4GB x 2), G-Skill (2G...NVIDIA GeForce GTX 660
Computer type
PC/Desktop
Computer Manufacturer/Model Number
n/a
OS
W7 Ultimate SP1, LM19.2 MATE, W10 Home 1703, W10 Pro 1703 VM, #All 64 bit
CPU
AMD Phenom II x6 1100T, 3.3 GHz
Motherboard
ASUS M4A88T-M/USB3 (AM3)
Memory
12GB DDR3 1333 G-Skill (4GB x 2), G-Skill (2GB x 2)
Graphics Card(s)
NVIDIA GeForce GTX 660
Sound Card
Realtek?
Monitor(s) Displays
Samsung S23B350
Screen Resolution
1920x1080
Hard Drives
WD Green 2TB (SATA), WD Green 3TB (SATA), WD Blue 4TB (SATA), WD Blue 6TB (SATA)
PSU
Cooler Master
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Antec GX300 Tower
Cooling
3x Antec TRICOOL 120mm Fans
Mouse
Wired Optical
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DSL
Antivirus
Avast
Browser
Pale Moon (64 bit)
Other Info
2018-12-27 Upgraded HDDs
2015-12-10 Upgraded case, graphics card, storage
2015-08-15 Upgraded motherboard & RAM
2015-07-15 Upgraded LM17.1 to LM17.2
Perhaps they should change the names of all of the programs and functions too.
"Control Panel" is so 20th Century.

Maybe they should change:
"Windows Update" to "Your Bodyguard".
"Word" to "Scrivener".
Or PC Settings instead of Control Panel.....
 

My Computer My Computer

At a glance

Windows 7 Ultimate x64AMD Athlon 240 II @ 2.8-4.004 ghzSuperTalent 4gb DDR3ATI Radeon 3000HD
Computer Manufacturer/Model Number
ASUS
OS
Windows 7 Ultimate x64
CPU
AMD Athlon 240 II @ 2.8-4.004 ghz
Motherboard
M4A78LT-M LE
Memory
SuperTalent 4gb DDR3
Graphics Card(s)
ATI Radeon 3000HD
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1440*900
Case
Re-modded Dell Dimension 4550
Cooling
Vantec 92mm Tornado x2
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It looks pretty.
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