Solved Hurricane Tracking

[Phone Man]

In the past I have started a thread for each storm but since this is the middle of the season I will use this thread for all storms for the rest of the season. There are 3 to watch today.

Katia - should miss land

TD14 - may follow Katia

Invest 96 - Hope this is not another Lee

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

5pm Update

Katia and Maria look OK but Nate is like Lee and will have to wait on steering currents to improve before he makes up his mind where to go.







Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Update 5pm Thur

Here is the latest.

New interactive map at National Hurricane Center

Katia - Looks like bad weather for the UK.

Maria is not very strong and is suppose to follow Katia's track but you can't be too sure.

Nate is still uncertain and waiting on steering currents and may be a strong one before landfall.

 

[Phone Man]

Its a lot quieter now. Nate went into Mexico, Katia lasted a long time and hit Scotland and yesterday Maria hit Newfoundland and has dissipated. A new low is being watched for development. Too early to see if this will do anything.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Heads Up

This one may develop later today or tomorrow.

1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Ophelia

That didn't take long.





Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Ophelia 5pm Wed Update

Hope this thing stays offshore.





This is Hilary and hope it heads out to sea.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Ophelia and Hillary 5pm Thur Update

Ophelia

Hilary

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Tues 9-27 11pm update

Ophelia has re-formed and heading toward Bermuda.

Philippe should die out in a few days

Hilary should die out in a few days.

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Double wammy for Mexico

Two Hurricanes are bearing down on the West coast of Mexico.

Jova to hit Monday night

Irwin maybe Wed night and near the same area.



Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Update Mon 10-10

Jova will probably make landfall late Tues night with winds at 125mph.
Irwin may not develop over 45mph but thinks can change.

Jova

Jova Winds

Irwin

Jim

 

[Phone Man]

Two to watch this week



Rina - May become a major hurricane and head to south Florida after hitting Mexico Yucatan.

Rina Computer Models



Invest 97 - may develop with warm waters in the Caribbean.

 

[Phone Man]

Update Mon 10-24 2pm

Rina looks to become Major Hurricane

Rina heading to Yucatan.

Rina may turn right into South Florida or Cuba

Invest 97 Plenty of time and hot water to develop

 

[Phone Man]

Update Tues 11PM

given the favorable low-shear environment and the very high oceanic heat content prevailing in the northwestern caribbean sea...rina could become a major hurricane at any time before reaching eastern yucatan. Thereafter...rina will find a very hostile environment of strong shear over the extreme southern gulf of mexico which most likely will weaken the cyclone significantly.

 

[Phone Man]

Big Changes in Rina

Looks like Rina is getting her butt kicked. Dry air and wind shear is taking the fight out of Rina and it is expected to stay in the North Caribbean and dissipate. Still has 60mph winds but is degrading.






Jim

 

[Phone Man]

All Clear

Looks to be all clear for now. Still have 31 days left in Hurricane season. It ends on November 30.





Jim

 

[Phone Man]

2011 Hurricane season is over. See you next year.

Jim