The PC Is Dead, Long Live the PC

[JMH]

Forecasts of the evolution of PC shipments estimate that approximately 380 million units will be sold by the end of 2010, some 70 million more compared to 2009. The vast majority of these units will ship with Microsoft’s Windows operating system, which prompted the not so unrealistic prediction that Windows 7 would hit the 300 million sold licenses mark by the end of the year. And yet, although more than 1 million PCs are being sold each day, the perspective that the post-PC era is nigh emerged earlier this month.

“The transformation of PC to new form factors like the tablet is going to make some people uneasy because the PC has taken us a long way,” noted Apple CEO Steve Jobs at the D8 conference, comparing PCs with trucks for an agrarian world. “The PC is brilliant […] and we like to talk about the post-PC era, but it’s uncomfortable.”

Time will tell whether Jobs was a true visionary when he predicted that the post-PC era was nigh, or whether he was just putting a marketing spin on the PC vs. tablets perspective. Of course, when professing the imminent death of the PC as we know it, Jobs is also telling Apple customers that Macs are a thing of the past. Running Intel processors and NVIDIA GPUs, Mac machines are just as PC as any computer with Windows preinstalled from an OEM.

Source -
The PC Is Dead, Long Live the PC - All device roads lead to the PC - Softpedia

 

[blackroseMD1]

Running Intel processors and NVIDIA GPUs, Mac machines are just as PC as any computer with Windows preinstalled from an OEM.

Haha, yeah, but about $1000 more expensive.

Great article JMH. Thanks.

 

[Max Peck]

The death of the PC has been greatly exaggerated.

-Max Peck 6/13/10

 

[tootal2]

I built my own desktop computer. so does that count in pc shipments?

Forecasts of the evolution of PC shipments estimate that approximately 380 million units will be sold by the end of 2010, some 70 million more compared to 2009. The vast majority of these units will ship with Microsoft’s Windows operating system, which prompted the not so unrealistic prediction that Windows 7 would hit the 300 million sold licenses mark by the end of the year. And yet, although more than 1 million PCs are being sold each day, the perspective that the post-PC era is nigh emerged earlier this month.

“The transformation of PC to new form factors like the tablet is going to make some people uneasy because the PC has taken us a long way,” noted Apple CEO Steve Jobs at the D8 conference, comparing PCs with trucks for an agrarian world. “The PC is brilliant […] and we like to talk about the post-PC era, but it’s uncomfortable.”

Time will tell whether Jobs was a true visionary when he predicted that the post-PC era was nigh, or whether he was just putting a marketing spin on the PC vs. tablets perspective. Of course, when professing the imminent death of the PC as we know it, Jobs is also telling Apple customers that Macs are a thing of the past. Running Intel processors and NVIDIA GPUs, Mac machines are just as PC as any computer with Windows preinstalled from an OEM.

Source -
The PC Is Dead, Long Live the PC - All device roads lead to the PC - Softpedia

 

[Max Peck]

I built my own desktop computer. so does that count in pc shipments?

Probably. Judging from the way most marketing-related numbers are spun they probably count every component shipped as a PC! Kinda like the administration counts every census worker who gets hired, laid off and rehired. The count that as 2 jobs in the labor reports!

-Max

 

[swarfega]

Ive been reading that the PC is dead for the past 10 years. Its not dead.

 

[squall leonhart]

jobs is a deluded fool who sits atop his sterile white throne.

 

[noobvious]

Running Intel processors and NVIDIA GPUs, Mac machines are just as PC as any computer with Windows preinstalled from an OEM.

Haha, yeah, but about $1000 more expensive.

Great article JMH. Thanks.

My thoughts exactly!

 

[Bootz]

Ballmer comments sounded a lot more true then jobs in my opinion, and even though i also love my EVO. No ipad or tablet is gonna replace a desktop or even laptop for that matter anytime soon, the power is just not there.

 

[noobvious]

Ballmer comments sounded a lot more true then jobs in my opinion, and even though i also love my EVO. No ipad or tablet is gonna replace a desktop or even laptop for that matter anytime soon, the power is just not there.

I don't mind the idea of a touch screen for certain things, but I want there to still be a proper physical keyboard there too. So the tablet thing is nothing I plan on buying.

 

[Max Peck]

Ballmer comments sounded a lot more true then jobs in my opinion, and even though i also love my EVO. No ipad or tablet is gonna replace a desktop or even laptop for that matter anytime soon, the power is just not there.

I completely agree with this. I'm not against the tablet form-factor, I've got an iPod Touch (32GB) and it's fantastic. I've played with an iPad as well and it too seems like a fantastic platform. However ... neither one of them approaches the full utility of my laptop system with Win7. Sorry - not even close. Software development (among other things) without a full keyboard, mouse and the power of the platform would be torture. The iPad and systems like it are end-user devices. As consumers of data they're fine but I can't even begin to imagine doing anything requiring heavy-duty input with one. (S/W dev as I said, writing a book, CAD, ... you name it).

The PC is going to be around for a LONG, LONG time. Outfits the size of Microsoft don't spend billions developing an O/S for a dead platform.

My 2-cents.

-Max

 

[smarteyeball]

Ive been reading that the PC is dead for the past 10 years. Its not dead.

This is just an recondite and abstract way of looking at the term PC. So it depends on your definition of 'Personal Computer'.

The PC is not dead, nor ever will be.

Why? In an abstruse way - it never actually lived.



What is perceived to be the death of the PC is nothing more than changing the methods of how we accomplish the same tasks we do now, as mentioned in the article.

The notion of PC death stems from the fact it is desktop computers and how they are trying to change how we currently utilise them coupled with the fact that there is a great push to phase them out and replace them with alternative methods.

Enter tablets/netbooks and goodbye to whatever element of 'personal computing' we currently perceive it as (desktops), since things are now erring towards complete and utter homogeneity with locked down and mass produced uniform devices.

(Putting a sticker on a device may personalise it - but it doesn't make it personal. )



Operating Systems and applications, be they Linux/MAC/Windows based can be 'personally' customised to an extent - but ultimately we have been, and are, limited by boundaries. Not really personal.

The same applies to component choices - you still have 'choices' but we are still fundamentally limited to a subset of technology and their subsequent manufacturers. Again, not really personal.

Combine the two and you will soon realise that ultimately there was, and is nothing truly 'personal' about computing.


Broadly speaking, we currently still have 'personal choices' in how we use our computers, tablets, netbooks etc - but in reality, these 'personal choices' have always been limited and have never actually been what could be defined as truly personal.



Ergo - The term 'PC' itself is a misnomer, and as such - since the PC was never alive, it is not dying - nor can it ever be dead.

 

[Dave76]

Nice post smarteyeball, well put.


The PC, personal computer, computer or communication and information device, that people choose to buy and use will continue to change as all things change.

Small Netbooks and Cell phones are mini computers, probably with more computing power than most people currently need.

The average casual user, surfs, visits social network sites, shops, pays some bills, finds some information on the web, email, maybe an occasional letter. None of these need more than 20% of the power in todays mid to high end computers.
The average office workers need communications, information access, the ability to produce documents, email.
And with more apps going to the cloud, they will need less powerful computers and more internet bandwidth.

Research, engineering and graphics will still need powerful computers.

There will still be a fairly large amount of people that actually need a powerful computer, either for work or for personal use.

The question is will people choose to stop buying desktops and power laptops.

The desktop and power laptop will not die out in the next couple of years, but will start to decline in the near future, say, ten years. If the internet bandwidth can grow fast enough.

 

[sygnus21]

This is just an recondite and abstract way of looking at the term PC. So it depends on your definition of 'Personal Computer'.

The PC is not dead, nor ever will be.

Why? In an abstruse way - it never actually lived

Dr. smarteyeball I presume

Nice post

 

[noobvious]

Ive been reading that the PC is dead for the past 10 years. Its not dead.

This is just an recondite and abstract way of looking at the term PC. So it depends on your definition of 'Personal Computer'.

The PC is not dead, nor ever will be.

Why? In an abstruse way - it never actually lived.



What is perceived to be the death of the PC is nothing more than changing the methods of how we accomplish the same tasks we do now, as mentioned in the article.

The notion of PC death stems from the fact it is desktop computers and how they are trying to change how we currently utilise them coupled with the fact that there is a great push to phase them out and replace them with alternative methods.

Enter tablets/netbooks and goodbye to whatever element of 'personal computing' we currently perceive it as (desktops), since things are now erring towards complete and utter homogeneity with locked down and mass produced uniform devices.

(Putting a sticker on a device may personalise it - but it doesn't make it personal. )



Operating Systems and applications, be they Linux/MAC/Windows based can be 'personally' customised to an extent - but ultimately we have been, and are, limited by boundaries. Not really personal.

The same applies to component choices - you still have 'choices' but we are still fundamentally limited to a subset of technology and their subsequent manufacturers. Again, not really personal.

Combine the two and you will soon realise that ultimately there was, and is nothing truly 'personal' about computing.


Broadly speaking, we currently still have 'personal choices' in how we use our computers, tablets, netbooks etc - but in reality, these 'personal choices' have always been limited and have never actually been what could be defined as truly personal.



Ergo - The term 'PC' itself is a misnomer, and as such - since the PC was never alive, it is not dying - nor can it ever be dead.

Very well said!

 

[Mark Phelps]

Maybe the few words in the quotation were taken out of context, but I'm having a hard time equating those words with "death of the PC" ...

Let's takes "trucks in an agrarian world". Is this supposed to mean the trucks serve no useful purpose in the farming industry? Really? Are these the trucks that haul raw materials to the farms -- like seeds, fertilizer, etc.? Are these the mechanized vehicles that harvest the produce -- like combine harvesters? Are these the trucks that haul the resulting harvest to local, regional, and national markets for delivery to restaurants, grocery stores, and consumers?

Seems to me that trucks play a very valuable role in an agrarian world.

Then, let's take the comment about being uncomfortable talking about a post-PC era. As others have pointed out far more eloquently than I could, if you define "PC" in futurisitic terms, to include such things as iPads, Slates .. and include the very new Sony multimedia device ... you could make the arguement that there will not be a "post-PC era", at least, not in the forseeable future.

And finally, saying the PC is dead now reminds me of all those know-it-all Yuppies in the heyday of the dot-com era that pronounced "brick and mortar" retailing as near death, as well. Don't know about you, but I still see a LOT of shopping centers with brick-and-mortar stores still around -- and the dot-com Yuppies are back working for a living.

 

[fseal]

I'm sure Mr Jobs would love to see the end of the PC era. I think Apple probably spends an enourmous amount of time supporting their mac line with VERY little profit from it. As far as Apple's vision of it's place in the universe goes it probably makes sense to think of it as the mobile gadget king. It makes sense for Steve to want the PC to die, it's now the thinnest end of their product line. with the iPod/Phone/Pad begin enourmous revenue generators.

But I'm sorry, Mr. Jobs view of the entire computing universe is pretty myopic. Mobile and specialized computing devices /expand/ the computing landscape. They may replace the desktop in only the lowest levels of home user computer use. They certainly are not even close to replacing the desktop in general any time soon. :/

 

[FerchogtX]

That's the most silly thing I ever read before... He is saying that PC is dead and Tablets are the future? Does a table run heavy games smoothly? c'mon... even netbooks are not a replacement besides the sold units in whole world...

I will never have a Mac or something related... and you know why? because I cannot afford that amount of money to have a "prebuild-aimed-to-rich" PC... I'll stick with normal Pc's because I can build my own depending on my budget, and also my choices. If Jobs still believe that his OS is perfect, he may be warned, now Mac is on sight by atackers, so they will need an AV software sooner than they think...

See ya!!

 

[Colonel Travis]

Doesn't seem like a lot of people read the entire story. Even the headline gives it away - there are two halves to the article.

 

[arkhi]

Jobs and his lies. Everything seem to be magical for him. Note: magical